This basic pandemic model explores the dynamics and healthcare burden associated with of a novel infection.
Welcome. Use the 'Step Forward' button on the right hand side of the screen to explore this model.
We start with a population of 100,000 Susceptible people who could become Infected.
The start of the pandemic is simulated by the arrival ('Initial Infection')of 100 infected people on Day 1.
Infected people generate further infections of Susceptible people at a rate determined by the intensity of the infection (R0) and the period of time people generate new infections (the 'average incubation time' [Days]).
After a period of time ('average incubation time' [Days]) Infected people become Sick. Once people become Sick they no longer generate new infections.
After a period of time ('average time sick' [Days]) a majority of Sick people will recover from the infection (Recovered). Severe cases will require hospitalisation ('% of cases needing hospitalisation') and move to In Hospital. Some cases may result in death before admission to hospital ('% out-of-hospital fatalities').
People remain In Hospital ('average time in hospital' [Days]). Following successful treatment ('from hospital recoveries') they join other people who have recovered from the infection. A certain number of cases ('% in-hospital fatalities') result in death ('at hospital deaths').
The severity of the infection will determine the number of deaths caused ('total % overall case fatalities'). The ('% cases needing hospitalisation') and the ('% of fatalities at hospital') this will detemine whether or not deaths occur in or out of hospital.
Assuming people who have Recovered from the infection enjoy immunity from further infection gives rise to a 'herd immunity factor'. This serves to reduce the number of new infections generated by an Infected person.
The final element of our model is the idea of a Social Distancing Policy. In the absence of any vaccination, or means of isolating individual Infected cases, this is the only policy available for limiting spread of the infection. In this simple model, the Social Distancing Policy can be set between 0 and 100%.
Use the Scenarios to explore the model. Once you're complete move on to the next step.
This completes the commentary on the model. When you exit from the story, you can use the model to further explore how different characteristics affect the dynamics of the pandemic.