The purpose of this deer management model is to explore the capacity of wildlife management actions to help us adapt to the effects of climate change.
The deer population model begins with a basic population dynamics model, where number of moose in the population is a function of the rate of new recruits added to the population minus the rate of dying among adult moose
However, the story is more complicated than this, as climate and habitat affect the realized deer carrying capacity, and road kills, hunter population and winter storms all contribute additionally to deer dying. Winter severity, K Max, wolf density and road density are all inputs to the model, while deer density is the output.
Maximum carrying capacity is an essential component of the deer model, and in this submodel is affect by habitat and climate. Recent occupancy modeling contributes to the estimate of K. Previous work by Broadbent, Voigt and Naylor on summer and winter K could also be incorporated. Effect of supplemental feeding should be estimated.
Winter severativty components affects deer birth and recruitment rates. Snow depth, winter temperature, and winter rains are components
Some winter events can increase over-winter death rates. Ice-storms and deep snow conditions are the two factors
In this model, the birth rate of wolves is affected positively by deer and moose density, will death rate is affected by wolf hunting and trapping, in addition to natural deaths. Recent work by Brent and others describing functional relationships could be incorporated here.
Recruitment for the moose model is affected by both habitat suitability and winter severity, while death rate is affected by wol predation, hunting, and natural death
The forest disturbance model is a simple of model that incorporates fire and harvest disturbance abd regeneration. Management actions affect regeneration and fire suppresion, and some component of disturbance is estimated to be coniferous.
Road density is a simple model where road building creates new roads, while decommissioning removes roads