We are modeling future cash flows in the system consisting of three interacting parties, one of which secures deals between the two others which do not trust each other.
The main goal of this project is to predict profitability and time to breakeven given initial investment amount and a set of parameters reflecting the rules of the platform.
Income is defined by cash flow through the platform, its commission and share of revenue given to buyers from one side, and expenses from the other.
Cash flow through the system has two sources - expansion into Russian factoring market, and acquisition of part of FCI participants. Both Russian factoring market and FCI are supposed to grow with some growth rate.
Expenses are first taken from the investment pot, till it is exhausted, and then from the profits.
From the platform's point of view, initial investment gained from ICO is not expenses, so the company shows profits immediately (as all the expenses are taken from the investment pot), and consequently it starts repayment to investors at once (in the model it is daily dividends from the agreed share of profits).
From investor's point of view, initial investment is expensed, and dividends cash flows today form their expectations of the future thus defining the Net Present Value of the project and current shares price. The two most important indicators are return on capital and time to breakeven.
NPV is calculated given average dividends in the past as cash inflows throughout the next 3 years discounted as the interest rate defined buy investors' risk appetite. Then current shares' price is calculated, and compared to initial shares price, from which together with total dividends received cumulative return on capital is calculated.
And there is part of profits not distributed to shareholders and accumulating in the system, providing for future expenses and interests of parties who founded the platform.
The results of simulation, given the set of parameters, appear after you press Simulate (above the scheme on the model's page). You may change the parameters using sliders on the right.
Generally, the smaller the initial investment amount, given that it covers all the costs, the better is the return on capital and the more attractive the project is for potential investors.
In the results window, everywhere where money are displayed, the axis scale is in millions of RUR, otherwise as mentioned in the graph.
Some additional information is presented at the bottom of the model in the folder "general information".