The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.
The following is a very simplistic view of the interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves and the implication of that interaction.
We begin with 150 [Moose] who have a [Moose Birth Rate] of 16% and a [Moose Death Rate] of .08%
With this birth and death rate the [Moose] population looks like it's out of control. There must be something else going on here as it's not likely that we're going to have 1.3 billion [Moose] in the future.
We also have 100 [Wolves] with a [Wolf Birth Rate] of .1% and a [Wolf Death Rate] of 12%
It appears that the population of [Wolves] is pretty much doomed, which is also not quite likely.
The [Wolf Birth Rate] depends on the population of [Moose] as [Moose] are the main diet for [Wolves]. If there are a shortage of [Moose] the [Wolves] population isn't healthy and doesn't have as many [Wolf Births]. [Wolf Birth Rate] = .1% * [Moose]
Also, the [Moose Death Rate] depends on the population of [Wolves]. The more [Wolves] there are the more [Moose] they eat. [Moose Death Rate] = .08% * [Wolves]
With these interdependencies between [Moose] and [Wolves] how do you think the population of the two species will evolve over the next 100 years? Click Step Forward to find out.
Was this what you expected? Probably not. And this is a very simple model of the interactions really involved. Our ability to intuit the implications of dynamic interactions is simply not up to the task. This is why we build dynamic models to help us understand what we can't derive from static diagrams.
You can alter the sliders in the Configuration Panel and Run Simulation to get a better sense of the implications of the interactions.