THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
Welcome to the 2017 upgrade of my previous 2014 model by Guy Lakeman.
Considering the rise in deaths by starvation per day to be now over 20,000 a means to adapt to climate change is necessary as fighting with nature to change it back 50 years is utterly futile and a waste of time and energy at this critical time before the deaths on earth plunge to half in the next 20 years.
We have also observed how drought and removal of water subsidy has also led to civil war in the middle east giving the opportunity for further conflict caused by the Behavioral Sink of urban overpopulation, all of this created by increases in persistent pollution which has also disturbed the great oceans.
This model simulation opening parameters shows us the next stage best fit to what will end up with a stable technology global population of some 2 billion or less as the necessary carrying capacity resources for have been significantly removed in the past two or three decades by uncontrolled mining and drilling.
We hope the advancing developments of Graphene, Silicene, AI and Aquaponics will provide a long term sustainable life for those who remain after the great cull.