MKT563 Justice Reinvestment in Bourke - Model Simulation

MKT563 A4

Laura Clemesha

Student Number: 11708856

Instructions: Hover and click the 'i' symbol for more information on any stock or variable.

Press the simulate button to visualise how the program impacts youth engagement levels. Use the sliders below to see how certain variables impact this effectiveness.

Overview

Bourke is a disadvantaged community in Australia with high rates of unemployment and domestic violence, along with the "highest rate of juvenile convictions in NSW” (Allam, 2018).The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Program uses community-led approaches to act as 'justice circuit breakers' to create safer and stronger communities (About Us, 2021).

This local initiative redirects funds spent on policing and punishment to treating the cause of the problem with approaches that help prevent offending behaviour (Allam, 2018). 

This interactive model highlights the positive impact these approaches are having on youth engagement levels in Bourke, and provides insight into how future investment could be utilised to further this impact. 

Assumptions

Youth population in Bourke is defined as those aged between 15-24 years old
2016 data has been used for this model:

- 280 youths in Bourke (2016 Census Quickstats, 2020)
- 91 Juvenile Charges in Top Five Offence Categories (Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project, 2018)
- 6.4% unemployment rate (2016 Census Quickstats, 2020)
- 63 driver program completions (Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project, 2018)
- 29.6% youth re-offending rate (Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project, 2018)
- 70% high school attendance rate (Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project, 2018)

Limitations
This model shows how some aspects of youth alienation, police, and community development are being addressed in the program. There are however some factors that the program aims to address but have not been considered in this model, these include domestic violence, hospital admissions for drugs and alcohol, and bail breaches.

Findings
The model shows that program investment acts as a circuit breaker for juvenile crime. The model also shows that the more youths entering the program, and therefore the more who are gaining employment, an education and driving licenses, the more engaged youths there are in the community. 

The simulation shows the impact that program investment has on this, demonstrating that with an investment of $10,000 it will take 14 years for all youth in the town of Bourke to be engaged in the community. Comparatively, by moving the slider all the way to the right, it is clear that with an investment of $100,000 this can be fast tracked to 4 years.

In addition, the simulation represents the impact that the individual factors such as employment rate, driver program attendees and school attendance rates has on the level of engaged youth in Bourke. When increasing these variables on the slider it is evident that youth engagement rises much more quickly, highlighting the impact of each of these approaches.

References

2016 Census Quickstats. (2016, 10 30). Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

About Us. (2021, 06 01). Retrieved from Just Reinvest: https://www.justreinvest.org.au/about-us/

Allam, L. (2018, 10 09). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. Retrieved from The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke

KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project.