1. The current Burnie population in 19550. Therefore, the susceptible population is equal to the current Burnie population.
2. Since Burnie is just a regional city, the virus infection rate is 25% as 5000 people in Burnie went into quarantine during the outbreak last year.
3. 50% of people who are infected will recover.
4. 20% of people who are infected will die because Burnie population average is old.
5. Government intervention and policy will reduce the Infection
6. COVID-19 is only countable as a case if the infected people have been tested, and the percentage of testing depends on how many infected people have been tested.
7. Following a recovery, there is a chance that people could lose their immunity, and also the immunity loss rate measures this.
8. Government intervention will reduce the infection rate by 15%.
9. Lockdown will cause tourism industry to shut down and affect the overall economic activity.
10. Lockdown is one of the most effective way to prevent infection.
11. Strict health protocol also contributes to reduce the infection.
12. Vaccination will not make people fully immune to the virus. However, vaccinated people will reduce the immunity loss percentage.
13. Economic growth rate percentage is based on year 2020.
Findings
1. COVID-19 could be significantly reduced in number and the spread of the vaccine could make a significant impact on the epidemic.
2. Economic activity will drop during the first phase of government intervention, However, it will steadily increase overtime
3. Less people going to be susceptible as government imposed covid 19 rules.