Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke
Jack Sun
This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.

Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.

  • Initial Values:
  • Youth: 750
  • Juveniles in Detention: 50
  • Petty Criminals: 200
  • Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0


Assumptions: 
  • With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
  • There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
  • There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
  • The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
  • There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
  • There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
  • The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
  • Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.
Key Notes:
  • During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
  • If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
  • It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
  • If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
  • Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.
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