The following simulation model demonstrates the relationship between supply, demand and pricing within the real estate and housing world. I have based the model on a small city with a population of 100,000 residents as of 2015.
The X-Axis shows the time. It begins in 2015 in the month of October and continues for 36 consecutive years.
There are 2 Y-Axis on this model. The left hand side relates to the price, demand, and supply, while the right hand side solely lists the population.
As you could see, this town has a population of 100,000 residents to-date. The bottom of the model shows a population loop that produces an exponential growth rate of 2.5%. This dynamic and growing city populates approximately 240,000 residents after 36 years.
The model consists of 2 folders named: Buyers/Consumers & Suppliers/Producers. This first folder represents the 'Demand'. It includes a buyers growth rate, buyers interest increase and decrease, a price demand and the demand price. The formulas form an exponential rise in demand due to the rapid and continuous increase in population in this new city. As population increases, so does the demand from buyers.
The second folder conveys the supply of houses. It includes a sophisticated loop of real estate. Residents who own houses in the market decide to sell the home. This becomes the Houses for sale, also known as the 'supply'. Those houses are sold and the sold houses re-enter the market and the loop continues.
The supply has an inverse relationship with the price. When prices drop, supplies drop because the demand goes up. And when the price goes up, so does the supply. This will represent the growth of new houses in the market.
Note: The price is based on monthly rent rates.
The price is dependant on many variables. Most importantly, the supply and demand. It also includes factors such as expectations & the economic value of the house. I have included a stable, 'good' economic value for all homes as this fictional town is in a stable and growing area.
Price fluctuates throughout the entire simulation, however it also goes up in price. Over the years houses continue to rise in price while they regularly fluctuate. For example, in 2018 (3 years later), the max price for a home was: $4254.7 and min price was: $852.98. On the other hand, in October 2051 (36 years later), the max price was: $14906 and the min price was: $7661. (This is based on the following data: Houses for Sale: 500, Houses that have sold: 100, Houses in the Market: 730).
There are 3 sliders on the bottom that could be altered. The simulation would react accordingly. The 3 sliders include changeable data on:
- Houses for Sale.
- Houses that have Sold.
- Houses in the Market.