This model portrays the effects that expenditure on policing and community engagement has on the cycle of crime in the rural town of Bourke. As a town with a high crime rate and an alarming growth of youth individuals participating in a cycle between juvenile detention and petty crime, several solutions have been investigated in order to counteract this issue. These solutions are illustrated in this model.
Underlying Assumptions:
1. The Bourke youth population starts off as 1000 individuals as indicated by their 2016 population.
2. The initial crime rate is 0.5, meaning that 50% of the youth population are at risk of committing petty crime.
3. The jail sentence for any one individual convicted of a petty crime is 6 months.
4. The initial number of people already committing petty crime is 200 youths.
5. The initial number of incarcerated individuals is 100 youths.
6. The town has a certain ratio of which the funding between policing and community engagement can be divided. This means that if a certain percentage of funding is allocated to policing, the remaining is allocated to community engagement expenditure.
Variables
1. Crime rate - the percentage of youth that are at risk of committing petty crime. This is included with a slider as the crime rate within any community fluctuates.
2. Conviction rate - the percentage of youths in policy custody who will be convicted for the petty crime they committed.
3. Recidivism rate - the percentage of youths released from juvenile detention who will commit crime again within the next 6 months. This variable is a constant of 0.7 as confirmed by statistical analysis of the Australian government.
4. Discharge rate- the percentage of convicted youth who are released back into the community. This variable is a constant of 0.5 in this model, meaning that 50% of convicted juveniles are released into the community every 6 months.
Interesting Things to Note
1. A high percentage of police expenditure results in a large number of incarcerated individuals and, after a period of time, an increased number of petty crime and thus low community engagement.
2. A low percentage of police expenditure and thus a higher expenditure of community engagement expenditure results in a low number of incarcerated individuals and a high amount of recreational club members. While community engagement is increased, so is petty crime as a result of low incarceration.
3. A balance between police and community engagement expenditure results in a fluctuating amount of incarceration and a high amount of community engagement. Thus this is the best solution in decreasing crime rates in the town of Bourke.