Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

 

A simple model of the township Bourke, showing the effects of community engagement within the youth population.

 

In-depth Explanation

This model uses the youth of Bourke and their temptation to commit crimes. These crimes are usually committed out of boredom and generally include: Breaking and entering, stealing, vandalism etc.  The model depicts that the increase of police presents means that will be an increase of youths caught and convicted whilst also providing in the reduction in the temptation to commit a crime. Those youths that are caught and convicted are sent to juvenile detention where they undertake rehabilitation. Depending on this rehabilitation youths will either be released back into the community where they may attend school or youth activities or become bored again and re-commit or released back into a life of crime pending unsuccessful rehabilitation.

 

Taking into consideration the Justice Reinvestment plan some of the funds used to increase policing will be used instead to improve community development. This has a knock on effect on crime as there will be better youth activities running to keep youths engaged and free of boredom. This keeps youths out of juvenile detention and also encourages them to go to school.

 

School attendance also has an effect on the temptation to commit a crime, if a youth is attending school then they are less likely to be out and about committing crimes. It was noted by Bourke High school Annual report 2012 that their attendance was a little over 60%.

 

Upon simulation there are a number of graphs that have been generated, these include Crime & Detention, Crime vs School, Crime vs Youth Activities, Town, Detention & Youth Engagement and School vs Youth Activities. These graphs along with the variable sliders show what sort of impact increase and decreasing the variable will have on the town and the youth’s rate of crime and detention. These graphs can then be used to make a informed decision on where it’s best to spend the money of the Justice Reinvestment plan.

 

Variables

• ·         Policing - is positively related to the likelihood of being caught and convicted whilst also being negatively related to commit a crime
  
• ·         Community development -  is positively related to likelihood of youth partaking in youth activities and is negatively related to the likelihood to commit a crime
  
• ·         Rehabilitation Effectiveness – is positively related to successful rehabilitation and re-joining the community and is negatively related to Reoffending and committing crime after release
  
• ·         School Attendance – Positively related to the likelihood of youth to attend school, and is negatively related to the likelihood of committing a crime
  

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Assumptions

• ·         Youth will be in school for 3 months before going on holidays
  
• ·         Youth activities will be run for 6 months
  
• ·         Youths will be held in detention for 6 months
  
• ·         No other factors other than Policing, community development, rehabilitation effectiveness and School attendance.
  

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Initial values

• ·         In 2014 ABS noted that 35% of Bourke are youth age 0-25 that means of the 3000 population 1050 people are youths.
  
• ·         Crime there are currently 100 youths committing crime
  
• ·         There are currently 100 youths in Juvenile Detention
  

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