Introduction
Bourke is a small town, located in New South Wales. The absence of a large number of entertainment negatively affects on a level of crime in town.
The model offers two options to increase the number of policemen to reduce the number of unresolved crimes, or to direct funds for the prevention of social problems and spend budget money on the development of sports clubs and educational programs(such as trading workshops).
Assumptions:
Bourke has a population of 3000 people, some of them commit crimes. Green are those variables that belong to the younger generation, respectively, orange marked variables that refer to the adult.
Since adults commit more serious crimes, violent character, then the variable refers to them (as well as a variable Jail). However, it is worth noting that such crimes are committed less often than minor crimes, so for the former to be added coefficient 0.05.
Variables:
Police presence: shows the amount of police in town
Engagement: the amount pf people, living in Bourke, who are engaged to take part in engagement activities.
Successful traders: The amount of traders, that are well known and successfully finished the course.
Number of successful athletes: The amount of successful athletes, who can serve as an example for young people to play sports.
(These two variables have not so significant effect on a correlation( such as first 2 variables), that is why, the are filled in a different colour(purple)).
Interesting Outcomes
The first simulation shows the correlation between
Despite of a large number of police officers (100), the number of domestic violence will still exceed the number of convicts. It could be said that not only police can not catch all the criminals, but also that not all victims submit an application to the police. For example, the do not want to disclose that.
The relationship between the involvement programs and the residents of Peter is much more ergonomic than the dependency between the number of policemen and the police's disclosure.
Therefore, it can be concluded that investing in engagement programs will do more good in a long-run than investing in prevention reforms.