The purpose of this model is to show how investments in community programs can positively influence the population in Bourke. It models the cycle between crime and conviction in key groups such as adults and young people. It simulates the impact of community development and alienation over a period of time.
Assumptions
This model assumes Bourke has a population of 3000 people, with 60% being adults and 40% are young people. It only simulates the relationship between adults and domestic violence as that is the main concerning issue.
Variables
Police Presence: negative reinforcement. The amount of resources put into policing (deterrence) determines whether individuals will commit crimes.
Alienation: the rate at which people involved in community programs will disconnect from their associated groups.
Community Development: the amount of government initiatives established to support community programs encourages individuals to participate.
Conviction: proportion in which individuals get convicted
Patterns
When the effect of alienation and police presence is limited (0.2-0.3) and conviction rate is maxed out (1), investing in a minimal amount of community development (at least 0.3) will encourage some community cohesion and reduce the possibility of crimes, to a limited extent.
Further increasing deterrence strategies in Bourke through policing will significantly reduce crime and also the number of convictions.
Suggestions
Conviction (1), Community Development (0.3 and 0.7 vice versa), Police (0.7 and 0.3 vice versa), Alienation (0.3)
The impact of significant police presence can suppress crime but does not support youths to be part of the community.
The effect of major community development increases individuals to participate in community but the crime rate suffers, especially in the initial period. In the long term however, crime rates eventually drop.