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Health Care

Clone of COVID-19 spread with containment measures

Pau Fonseca

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

Health Care Infection Epidemics

  • 2 months 2 weeks ago

Clone of Diabetes Prevention Opportunities

Mariane Kfoury
This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than one might suspect.

Health Care Public Health

  • 1 year 9 months ago