Marriage Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Marriage”.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.

 This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explic

This is an oversimplified model of marriage and divorce in England and Wales - prompted by frustration at ONS's presentation and analysis of absolute numbers of divorces and marriages each year. Absolute numbers depend on both underlying rates and the sizes of the populations - which are not explicitly revealed by the statistical models used by the ONS.

The current model is very crude - for example birth and death are introduced very crudely. Births are proportional to the number of fertile women (married or not) and the annual death rate is independent of age - unrealistic but simple. 

The rates and populations as currently set are almost in equilibrium - you can see equilibrium establishes during the first 20 years of the simulation. Step changes are best timed 50 years after the start.

The model shows how a step change in marriage rates produces an extended transient in divorces as the populations adust. To obtain a falling marriage numbers and rising divorce numbers requires a drop in the marriage rate and a large increase in the divorce rate. When these new rates remain constant, a complex transient follows as the population sizes adjust.