Diagram and simulation of disease spread

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Explore What Others Are Building

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This is a reconstruction of the SIMM model presented in Chapter 2 of Feedback Economics (Contemporary Systems Thinking)

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Simple Macroeconomic Model (SIMM) (SFD)

Gene Bellinger

The Maya and the Systemic Awakening

Los Mayas y el Despertar Sistémico

Este proyecto explora el auge y colapso de la civilización maya desde una perspectiva sistémica. Utilizando modelos de simulación, se revelan los ciclos de retroalimentación, límites estructurales y decisiones políticas que, sin conciencia sistémica, conducen a un deterioro invisible pero inevitable. Una reflexión profunda y actual para líderes empresariales, gobiernos y ciudadanos que desean anticiparse a los colapsos modernos.

El Legado Maya: Un Modelo Sistémico de Esplendor y Colapso

Pedro D. Almaguer Prado

3 days ago

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:

Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death

Andrew E Long

Goodwin cycle IM-2010 with debt and taxes added, modified from Steve Keen's illustration of Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis "stability begets instability". This can be extended by adding the Ponzi effect of borrowing for speculative investment.

Minsky Financial Instability Model