Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
Based on a book chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her PhD Thesis. See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist ( IM-3546 and IM-3834 are embedded here)
This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process. The simulation is described in the blog post "Starting late - The Superior Scheduling Approach - How, despite being identical, one company delivers almost 10 times the value of its competitor using flow-oriented project initiation."
By adjusting the slider below you can observe the work process
without any work in process limitations (WIP Limits),
with process step specific WIP Limits* (work state WIP limits),
with Kanban Token and Replenishment Token based on the Tameflow approach (a form of drum-buffer-rope)
with Drum Buffer Rope** scheduling method.
* Well know in (agile) Kanban
** Known in the physical world of factory production
The simulation and the comparison between the different scheduling approaches can be seen here -> https://youtu.be/xXvdVkxeMMQ
The "Tameflow approach" using Kanban Token and Replenishment Token as well as the Drum Buffer Rope method take the Constraint (the weakest link of the work process) into consideration when pulling in new work items into the delivery "system".
Feel free to play around and recognize the different effects of work scheduling methods.
If you have questions or feedback get in touch via twitter @swilluda
The work flow itself
Look at the simulation as if you would look on a kanban board.
The simulation mimics a "typical" feature delivery process on portfolio level.
From left to right you find the following ten process steps.
Ideas
Selected ideas (waiting)
Initiate and pitch
Waiting for preparation
Prepare
Waiting for delivery
Deliver
Waiting for closure
Close and communicate
Closed
[Published] Simulation Starting late - The Superior Scheduling Approach (simplified version)
The model is designed to provide a general understanding of the wear and tear on roads or a community's circulation system as a result of vehicle traffic generated by development within and outside of a community. It is not based on realistic assumptions regarding those impacts, it simply attempts to convey the flow of influence.
The imaginary city has a set area of roads measured in linear yards (width of roads is ignored) and an assumed number of vehicles on those roads set at 30,000 (per day). With those assumptions the wear and tear requiring repair is .02 or 2% Vehicle wear based on the 30,000 per year. There is also a calculated replacement cost of an additional 3% plus through vehicle wear or 5% per year. An increase in vehicles increases this vehicle wear impact exponentially. The model assumes that there will not be less than 30,000 vehicles.
Expenditures for repair or replacement are set to balance out on an as needed based on 30,000 vehicles. An minimum additional 50 cars from external sources is then assumed. Adding New Homes and/or New Businesses places an even greater burden on the circulation system.
The model does not consider additional funding. This will be added as a political factor but would need to consider the possibility of decreasing funding for other purposes.
Future additions to the model will include an inflation factor. Unfunded road work will get increasingly more expensive over time. Also a diminished revenue factor. A lack of capacity of the community's roads could likely result in a diminishment of the community's business sector thus reducing sales and property taxes and municipal revenue to expend on the roads.
This version of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model has been further calibrated (additional calibration phases will occur as better standardized data becomes available). Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature. Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further de-abstracted and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.
Model OTHER: All Components Added + Spending to Performance
based on Kolb 2005 article and 1984 publication on Experiential Learning and Pepper World Hypotheses via John Barton. See also The Art of the State IM and Social Relations Worldviews IM and The Educated Mind IM
This is a clone of "Fast Fashion ISCI 360 Solutions Final submission" created by user "V B" which we are using as the foundation for an exercise in the DTU course 12100 "Quantitative sustainability".
The model takes into account clothing production and textile waste on a global scale while incorporating Vancouver's own "Fast Fashion" issue into the model.
Please refer to the notes for each variable and stock to see which links were hidden from the model.
Part 2: Our solution for the issue surrounding "Fast Fashion" focuses on increasing individuals education about sustainability and how they can help reduce negative impacts on the environment by shopping less, recycling and donating. This effect of education on sustainability is seen in the "Online Shopping" equation where the impact of "Education on Sustainability" is increased by x1.5 which impacts the entire model. Furthermore, components of the feedback loop on the right are also influenced by increasing education on sustainability and thus, those values were altered accordingly. These values were chosen arbitrarily by taking into account that doubling any value is not realistic so the change should be between x1.0 and x2.0.
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM
Interventions and leverage points added in IM-1400 (complex!)
From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.
Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure
With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.
