Documentation       The Insight shown demonstrates how demand and supply in a real estate market can affect pricing.      Demand, Supply and Price have been represented by stocks. Each has an inflow where it has an increase in stock, and a corresponding outflow where stock is decreased.      Linkin
Documentation

The Insight shown demonstrates how demand and supply in a real estate market can affect pricing. 

Demand, Supply and Price have been represented by stocks. Each has an inflow where it has an increase in stock, and a corresponding outflow where stock is decreased. 

Linking each stock and flow is a variable that changes that which it is linked to. These have been labelled appropriately. Each variable takes a decimal value and multiplies it with that it is linked to, such as the rate of demand affecting the price set as 0.001*Demand. This is to generate the loops required to show the rise and fall in price, demand and supply.

Adjustments can be made to the price, supply and demand stocks to simulate different scenarios. Price can be between 400 (400,000) and 1000 (1,000,000) in accordance to average housing prices. Demand and supply can be between 0 (0%) and 100 (100%), although having these set as realistic figures will demonstrate the simulation best. 

Each simulation can be focused on how either demand and price interact over time or supply and price. These are shown in different tabs. 

When the simulation is carried out, the way in which demand and supply rates affect pricing can be seen. Demand and supply are shown with price following shortly after with a slight delay, since changes in market behavior does not immediately affect prices of housing. 

It should also be noted that the lines that represent each stock do not directly reflect the prices of housing in reality. Prices do not fluctuate so rapidly from 400 to near 0 like they do on the graph, however these are just representations of the interactions between each stock in a marketplace.
Summary mostly of Cheryl Misak's 2004  Book  Truth and the End of Inquiry: A Peircean Account of Truth See also broader history of  Pragmatism insight , mostly  from Cheryl Misak's other works and reviews
Summary mostly of Cheryl Misak's 2004 Book Truth and the End of Inquiry: A Peircean Account of Truth
See also broader history of Pragmatism insight, mostly  from Cheryl Misak's other works and reviews

9 months ago
 Clone of  IM-806  modified to integrate AnyLogic Real world, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and Land Use Modelling approaches. See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM

Clone of IM-806 modified to integrate AnyLogic Real world, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and Land Use Modelling approaches. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

8 months ago
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM  Interventions and leverage points added in  IM-1400  (complex!) 
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM
Interventions and leverage points added in IM-1400 (complex!) 
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Attempts to model in the social dynamics of  Pavilion host aquisition
Attempts to model in the social dynamics of  Pavilion host aquisition
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.  Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
 From  Werner Ulrich 's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective.  Part 1 : OR as applied systems thinking.  Journal of the Operational Research Societ y advance online publication (14 December 2011). and  Part 2  :OR as argumentative practice.  Se

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

See also insight on Boundary Critique

3 6 months ago
This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process. The simulation is described in the blog post " Starting late - The Superior Scheduling Approach  - How, despite being identical, one company delivers almost 10 times the
This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process. The simulation is described in the blog post "Starting late - The Superior Scheduling Approach - How, despite being identical, one company delivers almost 10 times the value of its competitor using flow-oriented project initiation."

By adjusting the slider below you can observe the work process 
  • without any work in process limitations (WIP Limits), 
  • with process step specific WIP Limits* (work state WIP limits), 
  • with Kanban Token and Replenishment Token based on the Tameflow approach (a form of drum-buffer-rope) 
  • with Drum Buffer Rope** scheduling method. 
* Well know in (agile) Kanban
** Known in the physical world of factory production

The simulation and the comparison between the different scheduling approaches can be seen here -> https://youtu.be/xXvdVkxeMMQ

The "Tameflow approach" using Kanban Token and Replenishment Token as well as the Drum Buffer Rope method take the Constraint (the weakest link of the work process) into consideration when pulling in new work items into the delivery "system". 

Feel free to play around and recognize the different effects of work scheduling methods. 

If you have questions or feedback get in touch via twitter @swilluda

The work flow itself
Look at the simulation as if you would look on a kanban board

The simulation mimics a "typical" feature delivery process on portfolio level. 

From left to right you find the following ten process steps. 
  1. Ideas
  2. Selected ideas (waiting)
  3. Initiate and pitch
  4. Waiting for preparation
  5. Prepare
  6. Waiting for delivery
  7. Deliver
  8. Waiting for closure
  9. Close and communicate
  10. Closed
 An overview of Thomas A Goudge's Book on The Thought of CS Peirce Dover NY 1950 and Thomas Knight's Book Charles Peirce NY 1965. See also  causality insight

An overview of Thomas A Goudge's Book on The Thought of CS Peirce Dover NY 1950 and Thomas Knight's Book Charles Peirce NY 1965. See also causality insight

9 months ago
In this model we seek to show how Formula 1 can bring there Co2 emissions down to zero by 2030 (six years from now).
In this model we seek to show how Formula 1 can bring there Co2 emissions down to zero by 2030 (six years from now).
12 months ago