MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.

Simulate an impact of an asteroid of any Diameter at any given Speed!

Summary of Ray Pawson's Book The Science of Evaluation: A Realist Manifesto See also lse review

based on Kolb 2005 article and 1984 publication on Experiential Learning and Pepper World Hypotheses via John Barton. See also The Art of the State IM  and Social Relations Worldviews IM  and The Educated Mind IM

Documentation

Simple box model for atmospheric and ocean carbon cycle, with surface and deep water, including DIC system, carbonate alkalinity, weathering, O2, and PO4 feedbacks.

WIP integration of dynamic and complexity insights using rubik's cube metaphor from Pop Health Book insight folders,  and others linked in notes

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

Assignment 3: Bourke Crime and Community Development​

In this model we seek to show how Formula 1 can bring there Co2 emissions down to zero by 2030 (six years from now).

The model takes into account clothing production and textile waste on a global scale while incorporating Vancouver's own "Fast Fashion" issue into the model.

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

IM-1175 with computable arguments, based on ideas from Micropublications paper about Claims, Evidence, Representations and Context Networks

This model simulates the tradeoff between the total costs and total benefits of using AI. The model shows the investment rate in comparison to the effectiveness and efficiency rate of the AI and we can visualize this relationship with our graph to see the cost and benefits of AI.

Modified from Sterman (2006) article and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions IM-351 by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also Complex Decision Technologies IM and IM-63975

The model takes into account clothing production and textile waste on a global scale while incorporating Vancouver's own "Fast Fashion" issue into the model.