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16

Clone of IM-806 modified to integrate AnyLogic Real world, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and Land Use Modelling approaches. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

Real World and Model World

Geoff McDonnell

Modified from Sterman (2006) article and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions IM-351 by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also Complex Decision Technologies IM and IM-63975

Virtual Experiments

Geoff McDonnell

3

Simulate an impact of an asteroid of any Diameter at any given Speed!

Asteroid impact simulator

Alex Neroni

3

Attempts to model in the social dynamics of Pavilion host aquisition

Pavilion Model

Alexander St. John

PlayCast Analytics

Alexander St. John

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions

Maria McMahon

Realistic_WolvesMoose

Khushal Polepalle

VA - socio-economic

Baihua

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions

Matthew Gall

based on Kolb 2005 article and 1984 publication on Experiential Learning and Pepper World Hypotheses via John Barton. See also The Art of the State IM and Social Relations Worldviews IM and The Educated Mind IM

The Structure of Learning and Knowledge

Geoff McDonnell

11 months ago

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

See also insight on Boundary Critique

Critical Systems Thinking

Geoff McDonnell

3 5 days ago

This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process. The simulation is described in the blog post "Starting late - The Superior Scheduling Approach - How, despite being identical, one company delivers almost 10 times the value of its competitor using flow-oriented project initiation."

By adjusting the slider below you can observe the work process

without any work in process limitations (WIP Limits),
with process step specific WIP Limits* (work state WIP limits),
with Kanban Token and Replenishment Token based on the Tameflow approach (a form of drum-buffer-rope)
with Drum Buffer Rope** scheduling method.

* Well know in (agile) Kanban

** Known in the physical world of factory production

The simulation and the comparison between the different scheduling approaches can be seen here -> https://youtu.be/xXvdVkxeMMQ

The "Tameflow approach" using Kanban Token and Replenishment Token as well as the Drum Buffer Rope method take the Constraint (the weakest link of the work process) into consideration when pulling in new work items into the delivery "system".

Feel free to play around and recognize the different effects of work scheduling methods.

If you have questions or feedback get in touch via twitter @swilluda

The work flow itself

Look at the simulation as if you would look on a kanban board.

The simulation mimics a "typical" feature delivery process on portfolio level.

From left to right you find the following ten process steps.

Ideas
Selected ideas (waiting)
Initiate and pitch
Waiting for preparation
Prepare
Waiting for delivery
Deliver
Waiting for closure
Close and communicate
Closed

[Published] Simulation Starting late - The Superior Scheduling Approach (simplified version)

Stefan Willuda

3

The model is designed to provide a general understanding of the wear and tear on roads or a community's circulation system as a result of vehicle traffic generated by development within and outside of a community. It is not based on realistic assumptions regarding those impacts, it simply attempts to convey the flow of influence.

The imaginary city has a set area of roads measured in linear yards (width of roads is ignored) and an assumed number of vehicles on those roads set at 30,000 (per day). With those assumptions the wear and tear requiring repair is .02 or 2% Vehicle wear based on the 30,000 per year. There is also a calculated replacement cost of an additional 3% plus through vehicle wear or 5% per year. An increase in vehicles increases this vehicle wear impact exponentially. The model assumes that there will not be less than 30,000 vehicles.

Expenditures for repair or replacement are set to balance out on an as needed based on 30,000 vehicles. An minimum additional 50 cars from external sources is then assumed. Adding New Homes and/or New Businesses places an even greater burden on the circulation system.

The model does not consider additional funding. This will be added as a political factor but would need to consider the possibility of decreasing funding for other purposes.

Future additions to the model will include an inflation factor. Unfunded road work will get increasingly more expensive over time. Also a diminished revenue factor. A lack of capacity of the community's roads could likely result in a diminishment of the community's business sector thus reducing sales and property taxes and municipal revenue to expend on the roads.

Calculating Road Wear and Tear on Community Roads

Brian Dowling

4

Adapted from Pawson and Tilley (1997) and Ratze et al. (2007) by Rosie Sadsad for a forthcoming book chapter. Contextual factors, mechanisms and outcomes are conceptualised as holons. Their state may change over time (t) and across levels of organisation (l). Holons are components and form part of a compound holon. Holons are connected by weak or strong links.

See also Realist Evaluation IM-1713 and Holon wikipedia and Multiscale modelling process IM-10070

Multilevel holons context mechanisms and outcomes

Geoff McDonnell

A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

Interventions and leverage points added in IM-1400 (complex!)

Systems Methods

Geoff McDonnell

3

2f. [thought question] Is it possible for r maxrmax to be positive and yet for the total regional abundance to exhibit a persistent declining trend? Explain your reasoning, using at least one biologically realistic example. You can use the agent-based metapopulation model in InsightMaker to help test your ideas, but this is not required.

NRES 470 Lab 6, 2b

Richard Murphy

7

Final Group Formula 1 Model

Abdurehman Ahmad

3

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions

Alyssa Farmer

This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.

Parker Realistic Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions

Parker Kain

This model simulates the growth of a human population based on factors such as birth rate, death rate, and carrying capacity. It calculates population change dynamically using human growth rate influenced by the maximum birth rate and minimum death rate. The carrying capacity (K) limits population growth, ensuring the model reflects realistic constraints. This model can be applied globally or locally to study how populations evolve over time and respond to changes in resources and other external factors.

Human Population Growth Model

Jathushan Vishnukaran

Summary of 2017 IEEE Computer graphics article (abstract) which could be applied to almost any chronic persistent health or social problem

Building useful theory on solid foundations

Geoff McDonnell

11 months ago

WIP integration of dynamic and complexity insights using rubik's cube metaphor from Pop Health Book insight folders, and others linked in notes

Beyond connecting the dots

Geoff McDonnell

Summary mostly of Cheryl Misak's 2004 Book Truth and the End of Inquiry: A Peircean Account of Truth

See also broader history of Pragmatism insight, mostly from Cheryl Misak's other works and reviews

Peirce Truth and the End of Inquiry

Geoff McDonnell