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Streamer Social Media Virality 2
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From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

See also insight on Boundary Critique

Critical Systems Thinking
3 11 months ago
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==edited by Prasiantoro Tusono and Rio Swarawan Putra==

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in
https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
  1. http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2020spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-MAA.nb
  2. https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model
Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death - based on Andrew E Long
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Streamer Social Media Virality 4
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Model Explanation


The model to be simulate the possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of the interested participated on the community activities which government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore they can specified on the reduce the rate of criminal activity. 

Assumption:

The assumption of the 2530 youth of the Bourke n the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based on the factor presented, no external influences

Variable:

Alienation includes any factors that can increase the like hood of youth to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background community engagement expenditure is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of growth detention policing is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided.

Stocks: 

conviction rate is set to 60% A growth detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 months the top 30% of the most server offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke assuming in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crime community activities are set to last 3 months to be calculating the align with the seasons: sporting club of the growth of community participants have 20% change of being disengaged as it may not align with their interests investments into policing are felt immediately & community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months. 

Finding the interest:

1. Alienation of the set maximum value is 0.2, policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation where by all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into growth detention even after a base value on the 500 youth placed into growth detention- this shouts that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youth as they overrun brouke.

2.  Set of community activity they can identified the 0.01 policing to max & alienation to max. The lack of social crime has caused much trouble among young people. The Police Immigration Police has not been deployed to the city of town, which has such a crime rate. Growth prevention can only last a long time, and all young people cannot be rehabilitated, so if they continue to commit crimes.

3. It plays an important role in considering the crime of young people. In order to keep the criminal activity minimal, the bulk of the budgets in police and social involvement among young people must be put at risk. Realistically, budget in a small town is an important factor, it may be engagement. 

4. To be set the police value 0.2, and engaged alienation expenditure value 0.04 of the community activities that can use of improve the youth in town of Bourke





 

MKT563_Big_Data_2018
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Streamer Social Media Virality 3
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MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.



MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke
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WIP integration of dynamic and complexity insights using rubik's cube metaphor from Pop Health Book insight folders,  and others linked in notes
Beyond connecting the dots
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Realistic Teaching Tool
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The model is designed to provide a general understanding of the wear and tear on roads or a community's circulation system as a result of vehicle traffic generated by development within and outside of a community. It is not based on realistic assumptions regarding those impacts, it simply attempts to convey the flow of influence.

The imaginary city has a set area of roads measured in linear yards (width of roads is ignored) and an assumed number of vehicles on those roads set at 30,000 (per day). With those assumptions the wear and tear requiring repair is .02 or 2% Vehicle wear based on the 30,000 per year. There is also a calculated replacement cost of an additional 3% plus through vehicle wear or 5% per year.  An increase in vehicles increases this vehicle wear impact exponentially. The model assumes that there will not be less than 30,000 vehicles.

Expenditures for repair or replacement are set to balance out on an as needed based on 30,000 vehicles. An minimum additional 50 cars from external sources is then assumed. Adding New Homes and/or New Businesses places an even greater burden on the circulation system. 

The model does not consider additional funding. This will be added as a political factor but would need to consider the possibility of decreasing funding for other purposes.

Future additions to the model will include an inflation factor. Unfunded road work will get increasingly more expensive over time. Also a diminished revenue factor. A lack of capacity of the community's roads could likely result in a diminishment of the community's business sector thus reducing sales and property taxes and municipal revenue to expend on the roads. 
Calculating Road Wear and Tear on Community Roads
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This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process. The simulation is described in the blog post "Starting late - The Superior Scheduling Approach - How, despite being identical, one company delivers almost 10 times the value of its competitor using flow-oriented project initiation."

By adjusting the slider below you can observe the work process 
  • without any work in process limitations (WIP Limits), 
  • with process step specific WIP Limits* (work state WIP limits), 
  • with Kanban Token and Replenishment Token based on the Tameflow approach (a form of drum-buffer-rope) 
  • with Drum Buffer Rope** scheduling method. 
* Well know in (agile) Kanban
** Known in the physical world of factory production

The simulation and the comparison between the different scheduling approaches can be seen here -> https://youtu.be/xXvdVkxeMMQ

The "Tameflow approach" using Kanban Token and Replenishment Token as well as the Drum Buffer Rope method take the Constraint (the weakest link of the work process) into consideration when pulling in new work items into the delivery "system". 

Feel free to play around and recognize the different effects of work scheduling methods. 

If you have questions or feedback get in touch via twitter @swilluda

The work flow itself
Look at the simulation as if you would look on a kanban board

The simulation mimics a "typical" feature delivery process on portfolio level. 

From left to right you find the following ten process steps. 
  1. Ideas
  2. Selected ideas (waiting)
  3. Initiate and pitch
  4. Waiting for preparation
  5. Prepare
  6. Waiting for delivery
  7. Deliver
  8. Waiting for closure
  9. Close and communicate
  10. Closed
[Published] Simulation Starting late  -  The Superior Scheduling Approach (advanced version)
5 5 months ago
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This model simulates the tradeoff between the total costs and total benefits of using AI. The model shows the investment rate in comparison to the effectiveness and efficiency rate of the AI and we can visualize this relationship with our graph to see the cost and benefits of AI.
AI
Insight diagram
Realistic Teaching Tool
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Insight diagram
This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process.

By adjusting the sliders below you can 
  • observe the work process without any work in process limitations (WIP Limits), 
  • with process step specific WIP Limits* (work state WIP limits), 
  • or you may want to see the impact of the Tameflow approach with Kanban Token and Replenishment Token 
  • or see the impact of the Drum-Buffer-Rope** method. 
* Well know in (agile) Kanban
** Known in the physical world of factory production

The "Tameflow approach" using Kanban Token and Replenishment Token as well as the Drum-Buffer-Rope method take oth the Constraint (the weakest link of the work process) into consideration when pulling in new work items into the delivery "system". 

You can also simulate the effects of PUSH instead of PULL. 

Feel free to play around and recognize the different effects of work scheduling methods. 

If you have questions or feedback get in touch via twitter @swilluda

The work flow itself
Look at the simulation as if you would look on a kanban board

The simulation mimics a "typical" software delivery process. 

From left to right you find the following ten process steps. 
  1. Input Queue (Backlog)
  2. Selected for work (waiting for analysis or work break down)
  3. Analyse, break down and understand
  4. Waiting for development
  5. In development
  6. Waiting for review
  7. In review
  8. Waiting for deployment
  9. In deployment
  10. Done
[Archive] Kanban Board Simulation - WIP Limit, Tameflow Kanban Token and Drum-Buffer-Rope
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Hoffman and Klein IEEE Intelligent systems 2017-18 series of articles on decision making and computing, including macrocognition
theoretical foundations abstract
empirical foundations abstract
causal landscapes abstract
deep nets abstract 
See also 2018 Gary Klein podcast and the process of explaining insight
Explaining Explanation
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Realistic Teaching Tool 1