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From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

See also insight on Boundary Critique

Critical Systems Thinking

Geoff McDonnell

3 11 months ago

Streamer Social Media Virality 4

Alexander St. John

11

==edited by Prasiantoro Tusono and Rio Swarawan Putra==

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:

http://www.nku.edu/~longa/classes/2020spring/mat375/mathematica/SIRModel-MAA.nb
https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death - based on Andrew E Long

prazi.antoro

Streamer Social Media Virality 3

Alexander St. John

12

FuturePulse V2

Clyde Romijn

Basic exponential growth model

A More Realistic Moose Population

Kasha

Cloned from v6 on 11/21/25

Added variables to simulate various climatic changes and natural disasters.

Earth Climate Box Model v7

CarterJM

4 months ago

Realistic Teaching Tool

Sarah Marshall

The model is designed to provide a general understanding of the wear and tear on roads or a community's circulation system as a result of vehicle traffic generated by development within and outside of a community. It is not based on realistic assumptions regarding those impacts, it simply attempts to convey the flow of influence.

The imaginary city has a set area of roads measured in linear yards (width of roads is ignored) and an assumed number of vehicles on those roads set at 30,000 (per day). With those assumptions the wear and tear requiring repair is .02 or 2% Vehicle wear based on the 30,000 per year. There is also a calculated replacement cost of an additional 3% plus through vehicle wear or 5% per year. An increase in vehicles increases this vehicle wear impact exponentially. The model assumes that there will not be less than 30,000 vehicles.

Expenditures for repair or replacement are set to balance out on an as needed based on 30,000 vehicles. An minimum additional 50 cars from external sources is then assumed. Adding New Homes and/or New Businesses places an even greater burden on the circulation system.

The model does not consider additional funding. This will be added as a political factor but would need to consider the possibility of decreasing funding for other purposes.

Future additions to the model will include an inflation factor. Unfunded road work will get increasingly more expensive over time. Also a diminished revenue factor. A lack of capacity of the community's roads could likely result in a diminishment of the community's business sector thus reducing sales and property taxes and municipal revenue to expend on the roads.

Calculating Road Wear and Tear on Community Roads

Brian Dowling

4

WIP integration of dynamic and complexity insights using rubik's cube metaphor from Pop Health Book insight folders, and others linked in notes

Beyond connecting the dots

Geoff McDonnell

This model analyzes the growth and dynamics of Oshawa’s population using a logistic approach. Starting with an initial population of 170,000 and an increased carrying capacity of 180,000, it evaluates how the addition of new neighbourhoods, planned to accommodate an extra 10,000 residents over the next 10-15 years (or whatever time period) affects population changes. Key factors include the Oshawa Residents Death/Emigration Rate of 0.8% (realistic percent approximation), accounting for natural deaths and emigration, and the Oshawa Residents Birth/Immigration Rate of 2.4% (also a realistic percent approximation), reflecting new residents through births and immigration. The model tracks the net population change, providing insights into how Oshawa's population might grow or stabilize as it approaches its new carrying capacity!

Logistic Model of Oshawa's Population Growth with Increased Residential Carrying Capacity

Abdurehman Ahmad

This version 8B of the CAPABILITY DEMONSTRATION model. A net Benefit ROI has been added. The Compare results feature allows comparison of alternative intervention portfolios. Note that the net causal interactions have been effectively captured in a very scoped and/or simplified format. Relative magnitudes and durations of impact remain in need of further data & adjustment (calibration). In the interests of maintaining steady progress and respecting budget & time constraints, significant simplifying assumptions have been made: assumptions that mitigate both completeness & accuracy of the outputs. This model meets the criteria for a Capability demonstration model, but should not be taken as complete or realistic in terms of specific magnitudes of effect or sufficient build out of causal dynamics. Rather, the model demonstrates the interplay of a minimum set of causal forces on a net student progress construct -- as informed and extrapolated from the non-causal research literature.

Provided further interest and funding, this basic capability model may further developed and built out to: higher provenance levels -- coupled with increased factorization, rigorous causal inclusion and improved parameterization.

Version 8B: Calibrated Student-Home-Teachers-Classroom-LEA-Spending

Robert L. Brown

26

Realistic teaching tool

Brittany Partee

Realistic Teaching Tool

Sage K Quiggle

Improvement Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using complex decision technologies IM-17952

Improvement Science

Geoff McDonnell

Streamer Social Media Virality

Alexander St. John

16

Realistic Teaching Tool

Ian Youngkin

realistic teaching tool

Bryan Remick

An overview of Thomas A Goudge's Book on The Thought of CS Peirce Dover NY 1950 and Thomas Knight's Book Charles Peirce NY 1965. See also causality insight

The Thought of CS Peirce

Geoff McDonnell

5 months ago

This model simulates the tradeoff between the total costs and total benefits of using AI. The model shows the investment rate in comparison to the effectiveness and efficiency rate of the AI and we can visualize this relationship with our graph to see the cost and benefits of AI.

AI

Roman Ahmad zeia

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1. Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2. Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3. Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.

MGT563 (11605457) - Crime, Policing & Community Development in Bourke

Lisa Ma

5

This simulation allows you to compare different approaches to influence flow, the Flow Times and the throughput of a work process.

By adjusting the sliders below you can

observe the work process without any work in process limitations (WIP Limits),
with process step specific WIP Limits* (work state WIP limits),
or you may want to see the impact of the Tameflow approach with Kanban Token and Replenishment Token
or see the impact of the Drum-Buffer-Rope** method.

* Well know in (agile) Kanban

** Known in the physical world of factory production

The "Tameflow approach" using Kanban Token and Replenishment Token as well as the Drum-Buffer-Rope method take oth the Constraint (the weakest link of the work process) into consideration when pulling in new work items into the delivery "system".

You can also simulate the effects of PUSH instead of PULL.

Feel free to play around and recognize the different effects of work scheduling methods.

If you have questions or feedback get in touch via twitter @swilluda

The work flow itself

Look at the simulation as if you would look on a kanban board.

The simulation mimics a "typical" software delivery process.

From left to right you find the following ten process steps.