MODEL EXPLANATION:
This model simulates possible crime patterns
among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing
and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve
their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity.
ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to
committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented,
no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the
likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic
violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted
into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town
of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by.
STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3
monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to
rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a
better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with
the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it
may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1. Alienation
set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a
simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and
placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed
into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the
overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2. Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of
community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of
police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate.
Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be
rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing
crime. 3. Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep
criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget
is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical.
4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04.
Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce
high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of
Bourke.
