This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
Populations Midterm Ecology Environment
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
Andrew E Long
79
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
Populations Environment Ecology
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

Experiment with adjusting the initial number of moose and wolves on the island.
Day 22: More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
Jacob Englert
WIP to explain iterative modelling of linkages over space and time see also  causal pathways IM
Association Health Care Realist Mechanism Correlation CMO Methods Prevention Causation
WIP to explain iterative modelling of linkages over space and time see also causal pathways IM
Linkages among objects
Geoff McDonnell
Addition of multilevel system dynamics to the context mechanism outcome realist evaluation framework of Pawson and Tilley. See also multilevel holons  IM-3546
Methods Realist Hybrid Multiscale

Addition of multilevel system dynamics to the context mechanism outcome realist evaluation framework of Pawson and Tilley. See also multilevel holons IM-3546



Realist Evaluation Dynamics
Geoff McDonnell
3
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
Ecology Environment Populations Midterm
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
Matthew Gall
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
Midterm Environment Ecology Populations
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

A decent match to the data is made with
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate Factor = 0.0203
Moose Death Rate Factor = 1.08
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is MDRF*Sqrt(M*W)
Wolf birth flow is WBRF*Sqrt(M*W)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
Andrew E Long
83
Summary of Ray Pawson's Book The Science of Evaluation: A Realist Manifesto See also  lse review
Realist Methods Evaluation
Summary of Ray Pawson's Book The Science of Evaluation: A Realist Manifesto See also lse review
The Science of Evaluation
Geoff McDonnell
Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's Book  comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship  book . See also Burrell and Morgan's Sociological paradigm
Philosophy Social Research Methods Realist Evaluation Health Care Science
Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's Book comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship book. See also Burrell and Morgan's Sociological paradigms webpage
Realistic and Other Evaluation Methods
Geoff McDonnell
Improvement Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using  complex decision technologies IM-17952
Services Health Care Systems Engineering Methods Complexity Deming Design Realist
Improvement Science as one of the clusters of interacting methods for improving health services network design and delivery using complex decision technologies IM-17952
Improvement Science
Geoff McDonnell
Insight diagram
More realistic moose model
Lawrence Rose
10
Clone of  IM-806  modified to integrate AnyLogic Realworld, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and LAnd Use Modelling approaches. See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM
Virtual Realist Experiment Methods Decision Making Inference Health Care Inquiry

Clone of IM-806 modified to integrate AnyLogic Realworld, Model World with Van de Ven Engaged Scholarship and LAnd Use Modelling approaches. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM

Real World and Model World
Geoff McDonnell
4 months ago
A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See  wikipedia
Methods Science Philosophy Realist
A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See wikipedia
Reality
Geoff McDonnell
Working model of Yellowstone dynamics created by students in Ecology 2015 at McDaniel College.​ This class collaboration is the first attempt by these students to develop a functioning model that includes competition, disease, predation, invasives and impacts of environmental variables on the ma
Working model of Yellowstone dynamics created by students in Ecology 2015 at McDaniel College.​ This class collaboration is the first attempt by these students to develop a functioning model that includes competition, disease, predation, invasives and impacts of environmental variables on the major species over the last 30 years.
Although we are attempting to create a realistic model, we are not researchers and depend on varied data sources for coefficients.

Eco15 Yellowstone Model
Esther
14
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM Interventions and leverage points added in  IM-1400  (complex!) 
Experiment Virtual Built Environment Health Care Realist Methods System Inquiry
A combination of qualitative and quantitative methods for implementing a systems approach, including virtual intervention experiments using computer simulation models. See also Complex Decision Technologies IM
Interventions and leverage points added in IM-1400 (complex!) 
Systems Methods
Geoff McDonnell
3
WIP based on  Kolb  and  Pepper  via John Barton. See also world hypotheses  wikipedia  Compare with  Cultural Risk Theory   Plural Rationalities IM  and  The Educated Mind IM
Methods Inference Culture Learning Knowledge Synthesis Realist
WIP based on Kolb and Pepper via John Barton. See also world hypotheses wikipedia Compare with Cultural Risk Theory Plural Rationalities IM and The Educated Mind IM
The Structure of Learning and Knowledge
Geoff McDonnell
IM-1175 with computable arguments, based on ideas from Micropublications  paper  about Claims, Evidence, Representations and Context Networks
Methods Learning Health Care Inference Realist Reasoning

IM-1175 with computable arguments, based on ideas from Micropublications paper about Claims, Evidence, Representations and Context Networks

Toulmin's Argument Model and Micropublications
Geoff McDonnell
Based on the article, designing a realistic stock and flow model.
Based on the article, designing a realistic stock and flow model.
Lake eutrophication
Pokemon
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19. With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease. We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured
Mat375 SIR Math Modeling COVID-19 Coronavirus SIRD
Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:
Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death
Andrew E Long
40
Based on a book  chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her PhD Thesis . See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist (  IM-3546  and IM-3834 are embedded here)
Methods Realist Health Care Multiscale
Based on a book chapter by Rosemarie Sadsad based on her PhD Thesis. See also other Insights tagged Multiscale and Realist ( IM-3546 and IM-3834 are embedded here)
Multiscale modeling process
Geoff McDonnell
WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture youtube video  Feb 2017 Sydney.
CMO Health Care Prevention Intervention Association Realist Methods Correlation Causation Mechanism Epidemiology
WIP Understanding pathways to observed effects complex causation Pathways Moving to Opportunity NYC example from Nate Osgood's big data lecture youtube video Feb 2017 Sydney.
Potential and actual causal mechanisms
Geoff McDonnell
Simulation d'un MRU d'un corps qui avance avec une régulation de vitesse réaliste.
Simulation d'un MRU d'un corps qui avance avec une régulation de vitesse réaliste.
serie 08a ex4 Une regulation de vitesse plus realiste V1
Bernard2018
Modified from Sterman (2006) and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions IM-351  by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also  Complex Decision Technologies IM  and  IM-63975
Inference Health Care Decision Making Methods Virtual Experiment Realist

Modified from Sterman (2006) and Gene Bellinger's Assumptions IM-351 by Dr Rosemarie Sadsad UNSW See also Complex Decision Technologies IM and IM-63975

Virtual Experiments
Geoff McDonnell
3
Adapted from Pawson and Tilley (1997) and Ratze et al. (2007) by Rosie Sadsad for a forthcoming book chapter. Contextual factors, mechanisms and outcomes are conceptualised as holons. Their state may change over time (t) and across levels of organisation (l). Holons are components and form part of
Methods Holon Stommel Realist Hybrid Multiscale
Adapted from Pawson and Tilley (1997) and Ratze et al. (2007) by Rosie Sadsad for a forthcoming book chapter. Contextual factors, mechanisms and outcomes are conceptualised as holons. Their state may change over time (t) and across levels of organisation (l). Holons are components and form part of a compound holon. Holons are connected by weak or strong links.
​See also Realist Evaluation IM-1713 and Holon wikipedia and Multiscale modelling process IM-10070
Multilevel holons context mechanisms and outcomes
Geoff McDonnell
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale. We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale websi
Populations Midterm Ecology Environment
This model illustrates predator prey interactions using real-life data of wolf and moose populations on the Isle Royale.

We incorporate logistic growth into the moose dynamics, and we replace the death flow of the moose with a kill rate modeled from the kill rate data found on the Isle Royale website.

I start with these parameters:
Wolf Death Rate = 0.15
Wolf Birth Rate = 0.0187963
Moose Birth Rate = 0.4
Carrying Capacity = 2000
Initial Moose: 563
Initial Wolves: 20

I used RK-4 with step-size 0.1, from 1959 for 60 years.

The moose birth flow is logistic, MBR*M*(1-M/K)
Moose death flow is Kill Rate (in Moose/Year)
Wolf birth flow is WBR*Kill Rate (in Wolves/Year)
Wolf death flow is WDR*W

Clone of Final Midterm Student version of A More Realistic Model of Isle Royale: Predator Prey Interactions
Matthew Gall