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This System Model presents the cases of COVID-19 in Puerto Princesa City as of June 3, 2021

Insight Author: Pia Mae M. Palay
System Dynamic Model of COVID 19 in Puerto Princesa City
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Covid in Japan
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The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.
The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.
From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing,  the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.
In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.
How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19
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Россия Короновирус
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Problem Set 1 Basic Covid Model
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COVID 19 Южная Корея
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COVID-19 SEIR Model (Indonesia values)
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Spread of disease (e.g. Covid)
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Агентное моделирование по COVID-19
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Tugas 3_Thamara Shaifa Anwar_0441174000035_Pemodelan Transportasi Laut

Dosen Pengampu : Dr-Ing Ir. Setyo Nugroho
Pemodelan COVID-19 di Indonesia
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LEIA ANTES DE COMEÇAR

Milhões de pessoas ao redor do mundo estão em QUARENTENA em função da pandemia COVID-19. Se adaptar à quarentena pode ser um PROBLEMA para muitas pessoas.

Nosso DESAFIO é construir um DIAGRAMA CAUSAL que analise este PROBLEMA que é ficar em quarentena. Vamos lá!?


PRIMEIRA TAREFA (até dia 13 de maio)

1) Qual a variável CHAVE que você acha que pode definir o problema? Crie uma VARIÁVEL dentro do folder CHAVE.

2) Quais as outras variáveis SECUNDÁRIAS que estão relacionadas com este problema? Crie variáveis secundárias dentro dos FOLDER que melhor identifica o tipo da variável.


SEGUNDA TAREFA

No dia 15 de maio discutiremos virtualmente no Zoom, as variáveis propostas e faremos um DIAGRAMA CAUSAL RASCUNHO.


TERCEIRA TAREFA

No dia 22 de maio discutiremos virtualmente Zoom, o DIAGRAMA CAUSAL RASCUNHO objetivando construir o DIAGRAMA CAUSAL DEFINITIVO.

Diagrama Causal da Quarentena
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corona virus model for spread.
correlated to US and Italy
covid-19
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covid 19 China
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Cameroon COVID Sim Cumulative Infections
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Корея коронавирус 2021
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INTRODUCTION

This is a balanced loop model that demonstrates how COVID 19 outbreak in Burnie and the response of the government (e.g. by enforcing health policies: Lockdown; quarantine, non-necessary business closure; border closure) affect the local economy.  This model has 13 positive loops and seven negative loops.  Government response is dependent on the number of reported COVID-19 cases which in turn thought to be dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered from COVID 19 and dead. Economic activity is dependent on the economic growth rate, increased in online shopping, increased in unemployment, number of people who do not obey the rules, COVID 19 cases and health policies.

 ASSUMPTIONS

 · Both infection and economic growth is reduced by enforcing government policies

 · However, the negative effect of government policies is reduced by the number of people who do not obey government health policies

 · Govt policies are enforced when the reported COVID-19 case are 10 or greater.

 ·     Number of COVID cases reported is dependent on the testing rates less those who recovered and dead.

 ·   The higher number of COVID-19 cases have a negative effect on local economy. This phenomena is known as negative signalling. 

 ·   Government policies have a negative effect on economic activity because health policies limit both social and economic activities which directly or indirectly affect the economy in Burnie .  

 ·  This negative effect is somewhat reduced by the increase in online shopping and the number of people who do not obey heath rules.

 INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The test ratings seem to play a vital role in controlling COVID-19 outbreak. Higher Rates of COVID testings decrease the number of COVID 19 deaths and number of infected. This is because higher rates of testing accelerate the government involvement (as the government intervention is triggered earlier, 10 COVID cases mark is reached earlier). Delaying the government intervention by reducing the COVID testing rates increases the death rates and number of infected. 

Increased testing rates allow the figures (deaths, susceptible, infected) to reach a plateau quickly. 





BMA708- Shakila Bethmage- 548351 - COVID 19 Outbreak in Burnie
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COVID-19 Week 7
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COVID-19 modelling with SEIR(D) Model method to predict transmission of COVID-19.
SEIR(D) Model COVID-19
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Agent-Based Model Covid-19
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COVID 19 Sample SIR Model
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INTRODUCTION

COVID-19

Coronavirus which was named COVID-19 is a respiratory disease which affects the lungs of the infected person and thus making such people vulnerable to other diseases such as pneumonia. It was first discovered in Wuhan China in December 2019 and since then has spread across the world affecting more than 40 million people from which over one million have died.

In the early discovery of the COVID-19, there were measures that were put in place with the help World Health Organization (WHO). They recommended a social distance of 1.5 meters to 2 meters to curb the spread since the scientist warned that COVID-19 can be carried in the droplets when someone breathes or cough. Another measure which was advised by WHO was wearing of mask, especially when people are in group. Wearing of mask would ensure that someone’s droplets do not leave their mouth or nose when they breathe or cough. It also help one from breathing in the virus which believed to be contagious and airborne.

The World Health Organization also advised on washing of the hand and avoiding frequent touching of the face. People mostly use their hand to touch surfaces which mad their hand the greatest harbor of the disease. Therefore, washing hands with soap will kill and wash away the virus from the hands. Avoiding touching of face also will prevent people from contracting the disease since the virus is believed to enter the body through openings such as eye, nose and mouth.

Another measure as a precaution from contracting the disease was to avoid hand shaking, hugging, kissing and any other thing which would bring people together. These were measures put to ensure that COVID-19 do not move from one person to another because of its airborne nature and the fact that it can be carried from the mouth or nose droplets.

Healthcare workers, in most of the countries, were provided with Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) which helped them to protect themselves from contracting the virus. Healthcare workers were at the forefront in combating the disease since they were the people receiving the sick, including the ones with the virus. This exposed them to COVID-19 more than anyone hence more care was needed for them. Their PPEs comprised of white overall covering the whole body from head to toes. It also includes face mask and googles worn to prevent anything getting in their eyes. Their hands also were covered with gloves which were removed occasionally to avoid concentration of the virus on one glove.

COVID-19 affected many economies across the world as it greatly affected the human economic activities across the world. Due to the nature and how it spread, COVID-19 lead many countries to lockdown the country as we know it. Travelling was stopped as many countries feared the surge of the virus due to many people travelling form the countries which are already greatly affected. Another reason which travelling was hampered was due to the fact that the virus could spread among the travelers in an airplane. There were no proper measures to ensure social distance in the airplane and many people feared travelling from fear of contracting the disease.

This greatly affected the economy of many countries including great economies like USA. Tourism industry was the one affected the most as many country mostly depend on foreign travelers as their tourist. Many countries do not have proper domestic tourism structure and therefore depend on visitors who travels from foreign countries. Such countries have their economies greatly affected since the earnings from tourism either gone down or was not there at all.

Apart from locking down the country from foreigners, many major cities across the world were under lockdown. This means that even the citizens of the country were neither allowed in or out of the city. This restricted movement of people affecting greatly the human economic activities as many businesses were closed down especially transport businesses. The movement of goods from one places to another was affected making business difficult to carry out. Many people who dealt in perishable agricultural products count losses as their farm produced were destroyed because of lack of wider market. Some countries banned some businesses such as importing second hand clothes since it was believed that they could harbor the virus. Most of the meeting places such as sporting events and pubs were closed down affecting greatly the people who were involved in such businesses.

Across the world, schools were closed. Schools contain students in large numbers which could affect many students across the world. Learning was temporary stopped as different countries were finding ways of curbing the virus.

Scientist are busy like bees across the world to find the vaccine for the diseases that have ravage many countries and above all, they are trying to find the cure. Many countries have carried out their trial of vaccines with the hope to find an effective vaccine for the virus.

Meanwhile it is necessary to find ways by which the virus can be controlled so that it doesn’t spread to a point where it come out of control. Some of the measures put by the WHO has been highlighted above, but these measures need to be studied to ensure that measures which are more effective are affected at great heights. I therefore, have created a model in Insight Maker to check how these measures prove their effectiveness over time.

Acomplex systems model of the relationships among different players in the town of Burnie, Tasmania - Nguyen Dang Khoa 520572
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2Бөлім Өзіндік
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Diagram-COvid
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This is a mitigated model showing the potential spread of COVID-19 across the healthcare system.

COVID phased community model (RC)