Insight diagram
Өзіндік жұмысы 2 агенттік
Insight diagram
Based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of disease, this is an upgraded model with more specifc vaeriables.
Insights:
When the growth rate and the number of the recovered is much larger than deaths, the economic activity remain steady growing.
Model of COVID-19 outbreak in Burnie Tasmania
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Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

SEIRD 01: COVID-19 spread
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This is a mitigated model showing the potential spread of COVID-19 across the healthcare system.

COVID phased community model (RC)
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This model estimates the deaths due to COVID19 in Bangalore City. 
Assumptions:
City has a population = 80 Million
Initial infected population = 10
Probability of infection = 8%
Contact rate in population = 6
Average duration of recovery = 10 days
Death rate = 1%
Quarantine rate = 80%
Delay in quarantine = 5 days
COVID-19_SIR_MODEL
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COVID-19 in Japan СРС-2
9 months ago
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Cameroon COVID Sim Cumulative Infections
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Based on this particular model created by Lutfi Andriyanto and Aulia Nur Fajriyah: https://insightmaker.com/insight/2wxxIeiWJsHNFGNH6cf6ke/SEIR


Updated by (Kelompok 2):

Daffa Muhammad Romero 20/456363/TK/50493

Iskan Mustamir 20/456367/TK/50497

Tasya Nafisah Kamal 20/460569/TK/51158

Hervi Nur Rahmadien 20/463601/TK/51593

SEIR Model COVID-19 Updated - Kelompok 2
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This stock-flow simulation model is to show Covid-19 virus spread rate, sources of spreading and safety measures followed by all the countries affected around the world.
The simulation also aims at predicting for how much more period of time the virus will persist, how many people could recover at what kind of rate and also about the virus toughness dependence based on its excessive speed, giving rise to bigger numbers day-by-day.
covid-19 in France
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COVID-19: description des types de population
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Simulation of exposure, infection, reported cases, and deaths.
COVID 19 outbreak control
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Model di samping adalah model SEIR yang telah dimodifikasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk menyimulasikan perkembangan penyebaran COVID-19.

Modified by Rio dan Pras
SEIR Model for COVID-19 in Indonesia - case study SLEMAN
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COVID-19 modelling with SEIR(D) Model method to predict transmission of COVID-19.
SEIR(D) Model COVID-19
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Simple SIR System Model for COVID-19_Group 4
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2 өзіндік
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Aldrich Sancho
Salim Arizi
Tugas Modifikasi Model Covid 19
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Tugas Metodologi Penyelesaian Masalah dan Pemodelan:
Wahyu Abdillah
Ribut Aji Kasmiadi
Faqih Zulfikar
Revised of COVID-19 S&F PT1 Model
Insight diagram
Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil:
A System Dynamics Approach

Villela, Paulo (2020)
paulo.villela@engenharia.ufjf.br

This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.

Evolução da Covid-19 no Brasil
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COVID 19 Sample SIR Model
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INTRODUCTION

COVID-19

Coronavirus which was named COVID-19 is a respiratory disease which affects the lungs of the infected person and thus making such people vulnerable to other diseases such as pneumonia. It was first discovered in Wuhan China in December 2019 and since then has spread across the world affecting more than 40 million people from which over one million have died.

In the early discovery of the COVID-19, there were measures that were put in place with the help World Health Organization (WHO). They recommended a social distance of 1.5 meters to 2 meters to curb the spread since the scientist warned that COVID-19 can be carried in the droplets when someone breathes or cough. Another measure which was advised by WHO was wearing of mask, especially when people are in group. Wearing of mask would ensure that someone’s droplets do not leave their mouth or nose when they breathe or cough. It also help one from breathing in the virus which believed to be contagious and airborne.

The World Health Organization also advised on washing of the hand and avoiding frequent touching of the face. People mostly use their hand to touch surfaces which mad their hand the greatest harbor of the disease. Therefore, washing hands with soap will kill and wash away the virus from the hands. Avoiding touching of face also will prevent people from contracting the disease since the virus is believed to enter the body through openings such as eye, nose and mouth.

Another measure as a precaution from contracting the disease was to avoid hand shaking, hugging, kissing and any other thing which would bring people together. These were measures put to ensure that COVID-19 do not move from one person to another because of its airborne nature and the fact that it can be carried from the mouth or nose droplets.

Healthcare workers, in most of the countries, were provided with Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs) which helped them to protect themselves from contracting the virus. Healthcare workers were at the forefront in combating the disease since they were the people receiving the sick, including the ones with the virus. This exposed them to COVID-19 more than anyone hence more care was needed for them. Their PPEs comprised of white overall covering the whole body from head to toes. It also includes face mask and googles worn to prevent anything getting in their eyes. Their hands also were covered with gloves which were removed occasionally to avoid concentration of the virus on one glove.

COVID-19 affected many economies across the world as it greatly affected the human economic activities across the world. Due to the nature and how it spread, COVID-19 lead many countries to lockdown the country as we know it. Travelling was stopped as many countries feared the surge of the virus due to many people travelling form the countries which are already greatly affected. Another reason which travelling was hampered was due to the fact that the virus could spread among the travelers in an airplane. There were no proper measures to ensure social distance in the airplane and many people feared travelling from fear of contracting the disease.

This greatly affected the economy of many countries including great economies like USA. Tourism industry was the one affected the most as many country mostly depend on foreign travelers as their tourist. Many countries do not have proper domestic tourism structure and therefore depend on visitors who travels from foreign countries. Such countries have their economies greatly affected since the earnings from tourism either gone down or was not there at all.

Apart from locking down the country from foreigners, many major cities across the world were under lockdown. This means that even the citizens of the country were neither allowed in or out of the city. This restricted movement of people affecting greatly the human economic activities as many businesses were closed down especially transport businesses. The movement of goods from one places to another was affected making business difficult to carry out. Many people who dealt in perishable agricultural products count losses as their farm produced were destroyed because of lack of wider market. Some countries banned some businesses such as importing second hand clothes since it was believed that they could harbor the virus. Most of the meeting places such as sporting events and pubs were closed down affecting greatly the people who were involved in such businesses.

Across the world, schools were closed. Schools contain students in large numbers which could affect many students across the world. Learning was temporary stopped as different countries were finding ways of curbing the virus.

Scientist are busy like bees across the world to find the vaccine for the diseases that have ravage many countries and above all, they are trying to find the cure. Many countries have carried out their trial of vaccines with the hope to find an effective vaccine for the virus.

Meanwhile it is necessary to find ways by which the virus can be controlled so that it doesn’t spread to a point where it come out of control. Some of the measures put by the WHO has been highlighted above, but these measures need to be studied to ensure that measures which are more effective are affected at great heights. I therefore, have created a model in Insight Maker to check how these measures prove their effectiveness over time.

Acomplex systems model of the relationships among different players in the town of Burnie, Tasmania - Nguyen Dang Khoa 520572
Insight diagram
This model is comparing healthy and sick residents in Burnie, Tasmania after the Covid-19 Outbreak in 2020. It will also show how the Burnie economy is effected by the disease, how the Government Health Policies are implemented and how they are enforced.

This model is based on the SIR, Susceptible, Infection, Recovery (or Removed) These are the three possible states related to the members of the Burnie population when a contagious decease spreads.

The Government/Government Health Policy, played a big part in the successful decrease in Covid-19 infections. The Government enforced the following.
- No travel (interstate or international)
- Isolation within the residents homes
- Social distancing by 1.5m
- Quarantine
- Non essential companies to be temporarily closed
- Limitations on public gatherings
- And limits on time and kilometers aloud to travel from ones home within a local community

This resulted in lower reported infection rates of Covid-19 and higher recovery rates.

In my opinion:
When the first case was reported the Government could have been even faster to enforce these rules to decrease the fatality rates further for the Burnie, population.  

Assumption: Government policies were only triggered when 10 cases were recorded.
Also, more cases that had been recorded effected the economic growth during this time.

Interesting Findings: In the simulation it shows as the death rates increases towards the end of the week, the rate of testing goes down. You would think that the government would have enforced a higher testing rate over the duration of this time to decrease the number of infections, exposed which would increase the recovery rates faster and more efficiently.  

Figures have been determined by the population of Burnie being 19,380 at the time of assignment.

Complex Systems How Burnie Tasmania dealt with Covid-19 Outbreak BMA708
Insight diagram
The model is built to demonstrates how Burnie Tasmania can deal with a new COVID-19 outbreaks, taking government policies and economic effects into account.
The susceptible people are the local Burnie residents. If residents were infected, they would either recovered or dead. However, even they do recover, there is a chance that they will get infected again if immunity loss occurs.
From the simulation result we can see that with the implementation of local government policies including travel ban and social distancing,  the number of infected people will decrease. The number of recovered people will increase in the first 5 weeks but then experience a decrease.
In addition, with the implementation of local government policy, the economic environment in Burnie will be relatively stable when the number of COVID-19 cases is stable.
How Burnie, Tasmania can deal with a new outbreak of COVID-19