Crime Rate, Community and Police Funding Programs in Bourke
The model gives a visual representation on the youth population of Bourke and the impact of crime rate, police and community funding towards the population. Additionally, the variables can be adjusted to see its overall effect on the youth population.
Total Youth Population in Bourke: 1000
(age group 16-24 years old)
60% of negatively influenced youth will become alienated and commit a crime.
70% of alienated youth who commit a crime will be arrested.
70% of youth arrested will be convicted and sent to youth detention
50% of youth arrested and not convicted will return to their former life of social disengagement.
30% of youth arrested will not be convicted and be rehabilitated
Police Expenditure: This variable in the model illustrates the police funding. It shows how increasing or decreasing the funding has an impact on youth detention and chances of going to rehabilitation.
Community Expenditure: The variable shows the impact of community programme over the youth population. The variable can be adjusted and shows a positive response to community expenditure and youth seeking help.
Crime Rate: The crime rate can be adjusted to a maximum of 30% increase for simulation purpose.
The various simulations shows that the crime rate decreases with a gradual increase in police and community funding. The youth seeking help from the community tends to have a positive behavioural change.
Bourke Youth Population
This model demonstrates the relationship and factors experienced by the youth of Bourke, in particular how youth alienation, police, and community development and other variables interact with each other. The model simulates the positives and negatives involved with being either socially engaged or socially disengaged. For example, community involvement and rehabilitation for positive factors to drug and alcohol abuse and unemployment for negative factors.
There are 3 key variables identified and outlined in the model. They are also the 3 sliders at the bottom.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Community Engagement Expenditure – this shows the impact of having community investment and programs in order to generate positive behavioural changes.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Police Expenditure – this shows the impact of police arresting the disengaged youth and getting involved to prevent further crime. This potentially results in rehabilitation.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->Unemployment, Drugs & Alcohol Abuse – this is the strongest negative variance and shows the impact of how a high rate of unemployment, domestic violence and drugs and alcohol abuse can have on youth alienation.
By reducing the negative variables like unemployment and abuse, it decreases the crimes committed and hopefully police expenditure and increases the percentage of socially engaged youth. Additionally, by increasing the community expenditure, it may reduce the percentage of alienated disengaged youths, increasing the positive behavioural changes.
From the information and sites provided, Bourke’s population is 3,000 and about 1,000 (1/3) identify as Aboriginal. According to ABC’s report “just about all [youth] are aboriginal”. Thus, this model has set the youth population as 1,000 people. Youth has been defined as 10-24 years.
The model resembles the game snakes and ladders, one slip up and Bourke’s disengaged youth can find themselves back at the beginning where they are either at risk or back to committing crime. For instance, if there is no behavioural change once they make it to rehabilitation, whether convicted of their crime or not, they will
As can be seen from the model, it is a slippery slope once Bourke’s youth are disengaged and start to feel alienated, however it is possible to get back on track, whether though police expenditure and involvement, community investment and programs to assist with rehabilitation. Additionally, there is a risk that if an arrested youth is not convicted of the crime, there can be an increase of recidivism, however with the variables in place.
From the KMPG campaign results so far, the variables in place seem to be working and reducing the number of youth in juvenile detention, increase of drivers licences, increase of employment and re-entering into the community.