This stock and flow model takes into account the ice albedo feedback and wave breakup feedback loops, and shows how even tiny changes in the ocean's temperature can cause sea ice collapse. Data is fitted to begin with the sea ice volume level in 1979, when PIOMAS data begins; BOE generally occurs mid-2020s to 2030s. Most recently updated to improve albedo impact loop and model GHG emission impacts directly

Causal Loop Diagram unfolding based on my Feb2026 Gemini interaction using Gene Bellinger's  AI prompts Revisited Mar2026 with Fadhel Kaboub's Club of Rome Deep Dive Paper

Simplified system dynamics model of the global carbon cycle. The model represents carbon exchange among four aggregated reservoirs: atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, surface ocean, and deep ocean. Fossil fuel emissions enter the atmosphere as an external forcing, while internal flows redistribute carbon between the atmosphere, land, surface ocean, and deep ocean. The model is intended to explore transient behavior, natural carbon sinks, atmospheric carbon persistence, and the long-term regulating role of the ocean.

Simplified system dynamics model of the global carbon cycle. The model represents carbon exchange among four aggregated reservoirs: atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, surface ocean, and deep ocean. Fossil fuel emissions enter the atmosphere as an external forcing, while internal flows redistribute carbon between the atmosphere, land, surface ocean, and deep ocean. The model is intended to explore transient behavior, natural carbon sinks, atmospheric carbon persistence, and the long-term regulating role of the ocean.

Simplified system dynamics model of the global carbon cycle. The model represents carbon exchange among four aggregated reservoirs: atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, surface ocean, and deep ocean. Fossil fuel emissions enter the atmosphere as an external forcing, while internal flows redistribute carbon between the atmosphere, land, surface ocean, and deep ocean. The model is intended to explore transient behavior, natural carbon sinks, atmospheric carbon persistence, and the long-term regulating role of the ocean.

Simplified system dynamics model of the global carbon cycle. The model represents carbon exchange among four aggregated reservoirs: atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, surface ocean, and deep ocean. Fossil fuel emissions enter the atmosphere as an external forcing, while internal flows redistribute carbon between the atmosphere, land, surface ocean, and deep ocean. The model is intended to explore transient behavior, natural carbon sinks, atmospheric carbon persistence, and the long-term regulating role of the ocean.

Atmosphere, land, surface ocean and deep ocean. Where does a pulse of fossil carbon go, and how fast?

Upper layer and deep ocean heat: the warming still to come after a forcing step or ramp.