SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Also applies to finance, conflict and war

Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Also applies to finance and war

Fear creates several reinforcing loops that support the gap between performance/results and the shared goal.  Mindfulness undercuts fear, thus decreasing the gap and supporting movement toward the goal.

Summary of Geoffrey Blainey's Book The Causes of War 4th Edition 2025 showing the Conclusions points Ch20 p323

conflict