These models and simulations have been tagged “Government”.
COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania shows the process of COVID-19 outbreak,
the impacts of government policy on both the COVID-19 outbreak and the GDP
growth in Burnie.
We set some
variables at fix rates, including the immunity loss rate, recovery rate, death
rate, infection rate and case impact rate, as they usually depend on the
individual health conditions and social activities.
be noticed that we set the rate of recovery, which is 0.7, is higher than that
of immunity loss rate, which is 0.5, so, the number of susceptible could be reduced
Adjustments: (please compare the numbers at week
Step 1: Set all the variables at minimum
values and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 135; Recovered
– 218; Cases – 597; Death – 18,175; GDP – 10,879.
Step 2: Increase the variables of Health
Policy, Quarantine, and Travel Restriction to 0.03, others keep the
same as step 1, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 166 (up); Recovered
– 249 (up); Cases – 554 (down); Death – 18,077 (down); GDP – 824 (down).
increase of health policy, quarantine and travel restriction will help increase
recovery, decrease confirmed cases, decrease death, but also decrease GDP.
Step 3: Increase the variables of Testing
Rate to 0.4, others keep the same as step 2, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 152 (down); Recovered
– 243 (down); Cases – 1022 (up); Death – 17,625 (down); GDP – 824 (same).
increase of testing rate will help to increase the confirmed cases.
Step 4: Change GDP Growth Rate to 0.14,
Tourism Growth Rate to 0.02, others keep the same as step 3, and simulate
results: Number of Infected – 152 (same); Recovered
– 243 (same); Cases – 1022 (same); Death – 17,625 (same); GDP – 6,632 (up).
increase of GDP growth rate and tourism growth rate will helps to improve the
GDP in Burnie.
Model of Covid-19 Outbreak in Burnie, Tasmania
When reported COVID-19 cases begin to show a rapid increase, the government will initiate control policies to deal with the spread.As the number of people tested increases and measures such as isolation and medical assistance are implemented, the number of people infected will decline rapidly.Therefore, the government's policy is to reduce and eliminate sources of transmission by increasing the number of tests and initiating control measures.At the same time, it also shows the negative impact of economic growth, which according to the model will stop in the next 20 weeks.