Overview:
This model displays the
conflict between the tourism and timber industry in Derby, Tasmania. It becomes
a problem for the government officials when choosing the future policy direction.
Our aim is to construct a model for simulation and find a equilibrium point to
maximize the state benefit.
How Does the Model
Work?
The key factor of the model is the value
of the policy variable. It can take values between -1 and +1. The more it is close
to +1 means that the policy government takes is more tourism-friendly. The more
it is close to -1 means that the policy government takes is more timber-friendly.
Other than
the policy variable, there are three sections for the model.
Section 1:
The tourism
We assume that there exist a population
which contains the whole potential customers. The potential customers will make
bike trips to Derby at a relatively stable rate. The input policy value will
affect the satisfaction rate for the tourists. Some of them will provide
positive feedbacks and become our potential customers again. On the other hand,
those had bad experience will no longer make trips to Derby. All the tourists
make consumption every month and part of the expense will become the tourism revenue.
The average expense variable is also provided in this section.
Section 2: The timber
industry
The input policy variable will also affect
the employment in the timber industry. It will partially determine the industry
growth rate. Like the tourism, the sales/industry scale will generate monthly revenue
for the industry at a given rate.
Section 3: The state
benefit
The revenue from the two industries will
be added up. Our aim is to adjust the policy value to maximize the state benefit.
Interesting Insights
Excessive logging may lead to environmental
problems and it isn’t the best option for the whole state benefit. Based on the
pre-set parameters and the model, we can see that the revenue contribution from
the tourism is also considerable. According to our results, the policy value
should be around 0.31, which represents the tourism-friendly policy.
