3b. Is the current population viable, under the criteria listed above? That is, is there a less than 5% risk of extinction over a 50-year time frame? Hint: use the Sensitivity Testing tool to run 500 replicates. Visualize the 95% quantile. For a viable population the 95% quantile should stay above 0 (extinction) up to at least year 50 of the simulation.
4b. Change the Age 1 mortality rate to 0.3. Run the simulation starting with 75 individuals, all in Age class 1. What happens? Is this a stochastic model? If not, why does it look like it has a random component?
No. It shows no randomness whether initial Age 1 population is 75 or 1000. Setting the time stamp to 0.1 eliminates the appearance of randomness.
4b. Change the Age 1 mortality rate to 0.3. Run the simulation starting with 75 individuals, all in Age class 1. What happens? Is this a stochastic model? If not, why does it look like it has a random component?
No. It shows no randomness whether initial Age 1 population is 75 or 1000. Setting the time stamp to 0.1 eliminates the appearance of randomness.
![[shared, don't modify]](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/5bb8c3b6-3574-4ad0-aa6e-ed04848e9340/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20240505%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20240505T151807Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
![[shared, don't modify]](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/0de47b27-ee94-47f8-b111-61db4380af10/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20240505%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20240505T151807Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
![[shared, don't modify]](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/850b81e4-f570-42ec-9820-7d09710eab07/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20240505%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20240505T151807Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
![[shared, don’t modify] ΔF = pi(1-f) – e(1-f)•f pe = e(1-f)](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/02ee7bd9-2d37-4731-a62e-3da9ff2ffd38/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20240505%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20240505T151807Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
![[shared, don’t modify] patch rates p(e/i) are variables informed by rates e/i for Internal Colonization model ΔF = i •f(1-f) – pe(f) pi = i •F](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/0251dab7-689e-483a-8f17-22694011c547/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20240505%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20240505T151807Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
![[shared, don’t modify] patch rates p(e/i) constant under Island-Mainland model. ΔF = pi(1-f) – pe(f)](https://insightmakercloud-files.storage.googleapis.com/ee239372-1877-4448-8a27-991890006e6d/images/cover.jpg?X-Goog-Algorithm=GOOG4-RSA-SHA256&X-Goog-Credential=insightmakercloud-file-access%40insightmakercloud.iam.gserviceaccount.com%2F20240505%2Fauto%2Fstorage%2Fgoog4_request&X-Goog-Date=20240505T151807Z&X-Goog-Expires=3600&X-Goog-SignedHeaders=host&X-Goog-Signature=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)
