The Causal-Loop-Diagram (CLD) explains how the concerning,  bellicose attitude adopted by Western countries  against Russia may have arisen and how some claims made by politicians are irreconcilable with military and geopolitical reality, that now seem to have hardened into an inflexible ideological stance.

The CLD was developed the  LLM, GEMENI, which was instructed to only use links that indicate a ‘causal’ relationship between variables.   The model shows an escalation of arms supplied by Western countries and how a continuing commitment to supply arms to Ukraine can be attribute to the psychology effect of  sunk costs and the development of some kind of kinship arising from the activity of continuous assistance.  These factors also led to a gradual hardening of views to become an ideological narrative.  

SUPPORTING EVIDENCE

Evidence for this step-by-step escalation comes from Germany, (but not only) that initially was prepared to supply only 5000 helmets and then escalated to advanced systems like the PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers and Leopard 2 tanks (and is now even considers the supply Taurus missiles).

PRAGMATIC VALIDATION OF THE MODEL.

 Charles Pierces Pragmatic Maxim says: “Consider what the conceivable practical consequences would if the word/phrase/concept IS TRUE.

Following this instruction GEMINI provided the required observable consequences:

* An increase in military aid followed by a notable  increase in the political rhetoric justifying that aid.

* A rise in "sunk cost" arguments directly correlated with demands for further escalation.

* The "red lines" for aid consistently moving forward, indicating escalating pressure.

* A noticeable shift in political discourse from pragmatic discussion to highly moralized, ideological framing.

No CLD can provide the certainty of its correctness, but a pragmatic assessment can increase significantly  the confidence that  can be paced on their findings and interventions they suggest.