Thanks to  https://insightmaker.com/insight/1830/Rossler-Chaotic-Attractor for this example of chaos, and the  transition  to chaos. "After running the default settings Bossel describes A=0.2, B=0.2, Initial Values X=0 Y=2 and Z=0 and varying C=2,3,4,5 shows period doubling and transition to chaotic
Thanks to
https://insightmaker.com/insight/1830/Rossler-Chaotic-Attractor
for this example of chaos, and the transition to chaos. "After running the default settings Bossel describes A=0.2, B=0.2, Initial Values X=0 Y=2 and Z=0 and varying C=2,3,4,5 shows period doubling and transition to chaotic behavior."

We're looking into environmental applications in our course, and how dramatically dynamics can change, based on a small change in parameters. Climate change "suffers" this chaotic behavior, we fear, and we're going to be "taken by surprise" when the dynamics changes on us suddenly....

Andy Long
 Perceptual Control Theory Model of Balancing an Inverted Pendulum. See  Kennaway's slides  on Robotics. as well as PCT example WIP notes. Compare with  IM-1831  from Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118

Perceptual Control Theory Model of Balancing an Inverted Pendulum. See Kennaway's slides on Robotics. as well as PCT example WIP notes. Compare with IM-1831 from Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118

A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See  wikipedia
A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See wikipedia
  ​S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution      Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers     This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model      The  Erlang distribution  is a two parameter family of continuous  probability dis
​S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

  • a positive integer 'shape' 
  • a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

From Padgett and Powell's  Draft Book Chapter  2003 Figure F Dynamic interaction of actors products and relations. See also their  2012 book  on The Emergence of Organizations and Markets
From Padgett and Powell's Draft Book Chapter 2003 Figure F Dynamic interaction of actors products and relations. See also their 2012 book on The Emergence of Organizations and Markets
   THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Book summary based on Tech St Petersburg  blog entry  , Rowley 2015 and Jensen 1978 books/ translations and recent U of Hull CSS seminar june 2021 (links via twitter @OrsanS)
Book summary based on Tech St Petersburg blog entry , Rowley 2015 and Jensen 1978 books/ translations and recent U of Hull CSS seminar june 2021 (links via twitter @OrsanS)
   ​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).        The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussi
​The probability density function (PDF) of the normal distribution or Bell Curve of Normal or Gaussian Distribution is the mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode). 

The parameter is its standard deviation with its variance then, A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
However, those who enjoy upskirts are called deviants and have a variable distribution :) 

A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

If mu = 0 and sigma = 1

If the Higher Education Numbers Are Increased then the group decision making ability of society would be raised above that of a middle teenager as it is now
BUT 
Governments can control children by using bad parenting techniques, pandering to the pleasure principle, so they will make higher education more and more difficult as they are doing


85% of the population has a qualification level equal or below a 12th grader, 17 year old ... the chance of finding someone with any sense is low (~1 in 6) and the outcome of them being chosen by those who are uneducated in the policies they are to decide is even more rare !!!

Experience means little if you don't have enough brain to analyse it

Democracy is only as good as the ability of the voters to FULLY understand the implications of the policies on which they vote., both context and the various perspectives.   National voting of unqualified voters on specific policy issues is the sign of corrupt manipulation.

Democracy:  Where a group allows the decision ability of a teenager to decide on a choice of mis-representatives who are unqualified to make judgement on social policies that affect the lives of millions.
The kind of children who would vote for King Kong who can hold a girl in one hand and swat fighter jets out of teh sky off the tallest building, doesn't have a brain cell or thought to call his own but has a nice smile and offers little girls sweets.


updated 16/3/2020 from 4 years 3 months ago
Causal loop diagram illustrating the negative feedback look of warming and cloud cover.
Causal loop diagram illustrating the negative feedback look of warming and cloud cover.
   THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Causal loop diagram illustrating how evolution, in the form of small incremental change (realized through random genetic mutation) paired with natural selection, serves to evolve species.    Additionally, the diagram illustrates the countering effects of genetic drift, which serves to reduce genetic
Causal loop diagram illustrating how evolution, in the form of small incremental change (realized through random genetic mutation) paired with natural selection, serves to evolve species.

Additionally, the diagram illustrates the countering effects of genetic drift, which serves to reduce genetic variation by eliminating beneficial genes.
Causal loop diagram illustrating how evolution, in the form of small incremental change (realized through random genetic mutation) paired with natural selection, serves to evolve species.    Additionally, the diagram illustrates the countering effects of genetic drift, which serves to reduce genetic
Causal loop diagram illustrating how evolution, in the form of small incremental change (realized through random genetic mutation) paired with natural selection, serves to evolve species.

Additionally, the diagram illustrates the countering effects of genetic drift, which serves to reduce genetic variation by eliminating beneficial genes.
Con la implementación del enfoque STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics), se busca formar jóvenes más curiosos, críticos y propositivos, que busquen dar solución a problemas reales de su entorno, región o país. De igual forma se puede explorar la orientación vocacional de los estudi
Con la implementación del enfoque STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics), se busca formar jóvenes más curiosos, críticos y propositivos, que busquen dar solución a problemas reales de su entorno, región o país. De igual forma se puede explorar la orientación vocacional de los estudiantes, exponiendolos a situaciones problemáticas y retos que a través de preguntas orientadoras y acceso a diversas herramientas tecnológicas, les permita llegar a una propuesta para dar solución al problema planteado.