The loop of inaccurate SPF labels and its consiquences
The loop of inaccurate SPF labels and its consiquences
 FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION     BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!    (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  The chaotic turbulence is the result of th
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

   INDUSTRIAL IMPACT ON RESOURCES THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RI

INDUSTRIAL IMPACT ON RESOURCES THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

This model demonstrates the various activities occurring across South East Queensland can both negatively and positively impact our endangered Koala population.
This model demonstrates the various activities occurring across South East Queensland can both negatively and positively impact our endangered Koala population.
Simulation of MTBF with controls   F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt   Where    • F(t) is the probability of failure    • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)   • t is the observed service life (h, for example)  The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
 Perceptual Control Theory Model of Balancing an Inverted Pendulum. See  Kennaway's slides  on Robotics. as well as PCT example WIP notes. Compare with  IM-1831  from Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118

Perceptual Control Theory Model of Balancing an Inverted Pendulum. See Kennaway's slides on Robotics. as well as PCT example WIP notes. Compare with IM-1831 from Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118

   THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.  WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER R

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

 FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION     BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!    (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  The chaotic turbulence is the result of th
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunb
OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Simulation of MTBF with controls   F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt   Where    • F(t) is the probability of failure    • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)   • t is the observed service life (h, for example)  The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

 The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.