*scroll to bottom for user inputs*
FIRE_simulation
v1.0
20200618
A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date.
with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.
Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.
Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!
can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.
Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)
Top right are variables about me.
Top left are market variables.
bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.
Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.
some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version
Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com
programming notes:
-market return years running consecutively not random.
-future years return FIRE rule
-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg
-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60
-rearrange user input variables
To do:
-get actual historical dividends
-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.
-year begin not integer?
-auto interpolation seems good.
-tidy the fucking model map mess
-fix child costs at initial random dist.
