The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Population Growth Demographics

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Burschi
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Population Growth Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Lars Johannsen
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Population Growth Environment Demographics

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
DerTheo
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W
Sea Environment Demographics Population Growth Population Weather Climate Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Engineering Strategy Economics Politics Fertility Health Services Resources Land Jobs Labor Urban Industrial Rural Lifetime Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Fish Plants Animals

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Athit Pinthong
Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book  2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Demographics Population Growth Environment

Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Clone of Global 2052 Forecast
arwa
By Geoff McDonnell Clone of IM-1954 to tidy up layout. The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.   Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to se
Environment Demographics Population Growth

By Geoff McDonnell
Clone of IM-1954 to tidy up layout. The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

 

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster with Folders
Dave Davis
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W
Fish Services Demographics Weather Environment Health Fertility Politics Ocean Resources Rural Population Growth Jobs Plants Yield Economics Industrial Sea Urban Population Climate Lifetime Failure Death Mortality Science Technology Pollution Engineering Labor Regeneration Land Animals Strategy

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Athit Pinthong
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Population Growth Demographics Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Burschi
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Environment Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Julia Cammann
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Environment Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of World3 Model from Open Modelica Implementation
Meunier
Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book  2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Population Growth Demographics Environment

Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

Clone of Global 2052 Forecast
mazais melnais nelietis
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Demographics Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Gyula Dörgő
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amo
Population Growth Environment Demographics

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.


Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Per Rosshaug
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Environment Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a more environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: Classic World Simulation
shaun savage
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Population Growth Demographics

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Solveig Lux
Simulation of MTBF with controls F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt  Where   • F(t) is the probability of failure   • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)  • t is the observed service life (h, for example) The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
TURBULENCE Demographics Fractals Physics Science Failure BIFURCATIONS Strategy Growth Risk Economics Navier Stokes Finance Engineering Biology Chaos Mathematics Environment Health Population MTBF
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
Clone of BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK
Nilo Guimaraes
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Population Growth Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Becky Haney
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Population Growth Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Clone of Clone of Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Maraike Denien
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Population Growth Demographics Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
DerTheo
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Environment Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Christine
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Demographics Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Christine
THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER REL
Hurricane Typhoon Loss Drought Flood Tornado Animals Plants Fish Cyclone Agriculture Food Sea Ocean Yield Regeneration Pollution Lifetime Rural Industrial Urban Labor Jobs Land Resources Services Health Fertility Politics Economics Strategy Engineering Technology Science Mortality Death Failure Climate Weather Population Population Growth Demographics Environment

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Gyula Dörgő
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Population Growth Demographics

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
valentin def
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Demographics Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Updated World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Kyle Wendling
5