income Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “income”.

*scroll to bottom for user inputs* FIRE_simulation v1.0 20200618 A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date.  with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones r
Stock Market Assets Retirement Fire Finance Savings Rate Income
*scroll to bottom for user inputs*

FIRE_simulation
v1.0
20200618

A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date. 

with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.

Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.
Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!

can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.

Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)

Top right are variables about me.
Top left are market variables.
bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.

Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.

some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version

Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com


programming notes:
-market return years running consecutively not random.
-future years return FIRE rule
-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg
-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60
-rearrange user input variables

To do:
-get actual historical dividends
-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.
-year begin not integer?
-auto interpolation seems good.
-tidy the fucking model map mess
-fix child costs at initial random dist.
FIRE_simulation
Phillip Balding
diagram of overfishing off the coast of Ghana and resulting impacts on poverty, nutrition, and child labor
Child Labor Fisheries Food Income Poverty
diagram of overfishing off the coast of Ghana and resulting impacts on poverty, nutrition, and child labor
Over-fishing in Ghana
Mieke van der Wansem
Insight diagram
Spendings Income
Company flow
Kaj Paulus
We live in the "new normal" where a college degree does not guarantee any graduate a great job.  In a shrinking economy with a smaller middle class - unemployment rates are higher among those with out degrees - however going into debt just to get that BA/BS may not guarantee a solid career and futur
CBA College Value Of Education Income Value Of College
We live in the "new normal" where a college degree does not guarantee any graduate a great job.  In a shrinking economy with a smaller middle class - unemployment rates are higher among those with out degrees - however going into debt just to get that BA/BS may not guarantee a solid career and future income.  

This insight series suggests there may be other important factors that predict good careers and  income streams than just a college degree.

This is the first Insight in the series. It is a simple, more "traditional" naive model of how education works, with an increased lifetime earnings from going to college.

Degree 1: Naive Model
Matt Sadinsky
We live in the "new normal" where a college degree does not guarantee any graduate a great job.  In a shrinking economy with a smaller middle class - unemployment rates are higher among those with out degrees - however going into debt just to get that BA/BS may not guarantee a solid career and futur
Income Value Of College Value Of Education CBA College
We live in the "new normal" where a college degree does not guarantee any graduate a great job.  In a shrinking economy with a smaller middle class - unemployment rates are higher among those with out degrees - however going into debt just to get that BA/BS may not guarantee a solid career and future income.  

This insight series suggests there may be other important factors that predict good careers and  income streams than just a college degree.

This is the third Insight in the series. It illustrates the difference in savings over time for a doctor or for a skilled worker who went to a trade school.

Degree 3: Savings Over Time
Matt Sadinsky
We live in the "new normal" where a college degree does not guarantee any graduate a great job.  In a shrinking economy with a smaller middle class - unemployment rates are higher among those with out degrees - however going into debt just to get that BA/BS may not guarantee a solid career and futur
Value Of College CBA College Value Of Education Income
We live in the "new normal" where a college degree does not guarantee any graduate a great job.  In a shrinking economy with a smaller middle class - unemployment rates are higher among those with out degrees - however going into debt just to get that BA/BS may not guarantee a solid career and future income.  

This insight series suggests there may be other important factors that predict good careers and  income streams than just a college degree.

This is the second Insight in the series. It takes into account the potential cost of student loans in the case that the student does not manage to pass college or does not succeed in their career.

Degree 2: Loan Costs
Matt Sadinsky
WIP Comparing Univeral Basic Income Guarantee with the Job Guarantee based on comparison articles
Politics Economics Employment MMT Income Inequality Inflation
WIP Comparing Univeral Basic Income Guarantee with the Job Guarantee based on comparison articles
UBI and Job Guarantee Comparison
Geoff McDonnell
diagram of overfishing off the coast of Ghana and resulting impacts on poverty, nutrition, and child labor
Child Labor Fisheries Food Income Poverty
diagram of overfishing off the coast of Ghana and resulting impacts on poverty, nutrition, and child labor
Clone of Over-fishing in Ghana
Mieke van der Wansem
diagram of overfishing off the coast of Ghana and resulting impacts on poverty, nutrition, and child labor
Child Labor Fisheries Food Income Poverty
diagram of overfishing off the coast of Ghana and resulting impacts on poverty, nutrition, and child labor
Clone of Over-fishing in Ghana
Mieke van der Wansem
*scroll to bottom for user inputs* FIRE_simulation v1.0 20200618 A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date.  with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones r
Finance Retirement Fire Stock Market Income Assets Savings Rate
*scroll to bottom for user inputs*

FIRE_simulation
v1.0
20200618

A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date. 

with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.

Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.
Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!

can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.

Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)

Top right are variables about me.
Top left are market variables.
bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.

Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.

some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version

Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com


programming notes:
-market return years running consecutively not random.
-future years return FIRE rule
-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg
-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60
-rearrange user input variables

To do:
-get actual historical dividends
-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.
-year begin not integer?
-auto interpolation seems good.
-tidy the fucking model map mess
-fix child costs at initial random dist.
Clone of FIRE_simulation
Joo Hee Lee