About the model

This model depicts crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, within varying levels of policing expenditure, risk factor, rehabilitation expenditure and soccer club expenditure.

 

Underlying Assumptions:

1. Only the youth population of Bourke has the tendency to commit crime
   
2. No further external factors other than those presented have an effect on criminal tendencies
   
3. ‘Risk Factor’ refers to any factors that increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime. This may include exposure to domestic abuse, income level, education level, family background
   
4. No ‘jail effect’ -  jailed youths do not return to town being more corrupt than before through learning off their cellmates
   
5. Only 2 outcomes of participating in the soccer club: being engaged by the social activity and deterred from committing crime, or disengaged and become at risk of committing crime
   

 

Constants:

• Criminals have a 60% chance of getting convicted
  
• A jail sentence for convicted criminals is 6 months
  
• The top 20% of the most serious offenders get sent to the rehabilitation centre for 3 months, after which they return to town in a better state and less likely to repeat crime
  
• 1 session of the soccer club participation is 3 months
  
• Soccer club participants have a 10% chance of being disengaged
  
• Investments into policing, rehabilitation services and the soccer club are felt immediately – no time delay
  

 

Interesting results:

1. A high number of criminals does not necessarily mean they all end up in jail. A stimulation with risk factor at maximum (0.2) and policing at minimum (0.01) shows high numbers of criminals, but they all seem to be in town. When the slider for policing is adjusted to maximum (0.5), the criminals are moved from town to jail. Thus, a high investment in policing is needed to detect and detain criminals.
   
2. A generous investment into the soccer club (>0.35) results in a higher number of actively engaged and enlightened youths who then return back to town in a better state. This has an effect of bringing down the number of criminals (implications for long term)
   
3. In an ideal world, Bourke would invest maximum levels into policing, rehabilitation and the soccer club, and there would be a minimal risk factor for crime committing tendencies. A stimulation on these settings reflect few criminals, low jail rates and high engagement in the soccer club. However with the towns budget constraints, this is not a feasible solution for the long term.
   
4. Instead, a long term solution for Bourke (assuming a moderate risk factor of 0.1) is to allocate some of the policing expenditure (Eg. Down to 0.37) towards maximising community development services:
   

- The rehabilitation centre will tame the most serious offenders, making them less likely to commit crime the next time round (Eg. Setting at 1.0)

- The soccer club will distract youths from crime temptations, as well as nurture a sense of societal inclusion and wellbeing in the long term (Eg. Setting at 0.4)

A stimulation on these parameters show that criminal rates are moderated, the ratio of youths in jail to town is lowered, and the outcome for the soccer club is very good with majority of participants feeling engaged. 

Here we show the revenue model of Facebook. We do this based on two major streams.

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.

Paso de proyectos de I+D a fases finales de alistamiento.

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.

Overview of Ch 25 of Mitchell Wray and Watts Textbook see IM-164967 for book overview

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.

MODEL EXPLANATION:

This model simulates possible crime patterns among the youth population of Bourke, where levels of alienation, policing and community engagement expenditure can be manipulated. Here the youth in Bourke have a minimum percentage of interest to participate in community activities in which the government aims to improve their lifestyle and therefore reduce the rate of criminal activity. ASSUMPTIONS:There are 1500 youths of Bourke in the population susceptible to committing crime and simulations of criminal tendencies are only based the factors presented, no external influences.
VARIABLES:“Alienation” includes any factors that can increase the likelihood of youths to commit crime such as exposure to domestic violence, household income, education level, and family background‘Community engagement Expenditure’ is the total monies budgeted into community activities to develop youths in and out of Juvenile detention‘Policing’ is the amount of police placed onto patrol in the town of Bourke to reinforce safety and that the law is abided by. STOCKS:Conviction rate is set to 60%A juvenile detention sentence for convicted criminals is set to 3 monthsThe top 30% of the most severe offenders are sent to rehabilitation for 3 months, to which they return to Bourke, assumingly in a better state and less likely to repeat a petty crimeCommunity activities are set to last for 3 months to align with the seasons: these could be sporting clubs or youth groupsCommunity participants have a 20% chance of being disengaged as it may not align with their interestsInvestments into policing are felt immediately& community engagement expenditure has a delay of 3 months
INTERESTING FINDS:1.    Alienation set to max (0.2), policing and community engagement set to minimum shows a simulation whereby all criminals are in town rather than being expedited and placed into juvenile detention, even after a base value of 200 youths placed into juvenile detention – this shows that budget is required to control the overwhelming number of criminal youths as they overrun Bourke2.    Set community activity to 0.01, policing to max & Alienation to max. A lack of community activity can produce high disengagement amongst youths regardless of police enforcement to the town of Bourke that has a high criminal rate. Juvenile detention only lasts for so long and not all youths can be rehabilitated, so they are released back into Bourke with chances of re-committing crime. 3.    Alienation plays a major role in affecting youths to consider committing crime. To keep criminal activity to a minimum, ideally the maximum rates of budget in policing and community engagement within youths highly at risk of committing crime should be pushed. Realistically, budget is a sensitive case within a small town and may not be practical. 4. Set policing to 0.25, community engagement to 0.2 & alienation to 0.04. Moderate expenditure to community activities and policing can produce high engagement rates and improved youths in the town of Bourke.