Justice Models
These models and simulations have been tagged “Justice”.
Autonomy Paternalism and Justice: Ethics in Public Health
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
A simple model of the township Bourke, showing the effects of community engagement within the youth population.
In-depth Explanation
This model uses the youth of Bourke and their temptation to commit crimes. These crimes are usually committed out of boredom and generally include: Breaking and entering, stealing, vandalism etc. The model depicts that the increase of police presents means that will be an increase of youths caught and convicted whilst also providing in the reduction in the temptation to commit a crime. Those youths that are caught and convicted are sent to juvenile detention where they undertake rehabilitation. Depending on this rehabilitation youths will either be released back into the community where they may attend school or youth activities or become bored again and re-commit or released back into a life of crime pending unsuccessful rehabilitation.
Taking into consideration the Justice Reinvestment plan some of the funds used to increase policing will be used instead to improve community development. This has a knock on effect on crime as there will be better youth activities running to keep youths engaged and free of boredom. This keeps youths out of juvenile detention and also encourages them to go to school.
School attendance also has an effect on the temptation to commit a crime, if a youth is attending school then they are less likely to be out and about committing crimes. It was noted by Bourke High school Annual report 2012 that their attendance was a little over 60%.
Upon simulation there are a number of graphs that have been generated, these include Crime & Detention, Crime vs School, Crime vs Youth Activities, Town, Detention & Youth Engagement and School vs Youth Activities. These graphs along with the variable sliders show what sort of impact increase and decreasing the variable will have on the town and the youth’s rate of crime and detention. These graphs can then be used to make a informed decision on where it’s best to spend the money of the Justice Reinvestment plan.
Variables
- ·
Policing - is positively related to the likelihood of being caught and
convicted whilst also being negatively related to commit a crime
- ·
Community development - is positively
related to likelihood of youth partaking in youth activities and is negatively
related to the likelihood to commit a crime
- ·
Rehabilitation Effectiveness – is positively related to successful rehabilitation
and re-joining the community and is negatively related to Reoffending and committing
crime after release
- ·
School Attendance – Positively related to the likelihood of youth to
attend school, and is negatively related to the likelihood of committing a
crime
Assumptions
- ·
Youth will be in school for 3 months before
going on holidays
- ·
Youth activities will be run for 6 months
- ·
Youths will be held in detention for 6 months
- ·
No other factors other than Policing, community development,
rehabilitation effectiveness and School attendance.
Initial values
- ·
In 2014 ABS noted that 35% of Bourke are youth
age 0-25 that means of the 3000 population 1050 people are youths.
- ·
Crime there are currently 100 youths committing
crime
- · There are currently 100 youths in Juvenile Detention
Clone of Starting point for assignment
WIP Based on Just Justice book from croakey website .to be compared with oid 2016 report insight on overcoming indigenous disadvantage
Just Justice tackling Aboriginal Over-Incarceration
THE MODEL
Underlying assumptions:
- Police Force has a negative relationship with
committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
- Community Investment has a negative relationship
with committed crime.
- Family – Police relations is negatively related
to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed
crime.
- Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as
this model mainly focuses on this population).
- Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need
more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.
Constants:
- It took six months for Community Investment
(which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family –
Police Relations to work.
- Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.
Things to note:
- Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because
of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate
(police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was
used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three
rates.
- Those violent families were detected by the
Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad
effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the
likelihood of committing crimes.
- Community Investment in forming soccer team,
trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals
(the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances
of committing crimes of these individuals.
- Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the
best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because
detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the
community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment
campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for
Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.
Initial values:
Youth in town: 1200.
Criminals: 100.
Juvenile Detention: 100.
Violent families: 300
Detected violent families: 100.
Clone of Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
Child and youth mental health and wellbeing synthesis with a focus on adverse childhood experiences and youth suicide WIP See also added Women and Violence IM
Early Childhood Intervention
ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.
Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.
Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.
Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.
Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
The complex
systems model ‘Engagement vs Police Expenditure for Justice Reinvestment in
Bourke, NSW’ evaluates the effectiveness of allocating government funding to
either community engagement activities or law enforcement. In this model, it is
possible for the user to designate resources from a scale of 20-100 and to also
modify the crime rate for both adults and youth. Below, there are detailed
notes that describe the reasoning and assumptions that justify the logic
applied to this model. Similar notes can be found when stocks, flows and
variables is clicked under the field ‘notes’.
Portions
Government statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Bourke Shire Regional Council has approximately 3000 residents, made up of 65-63% adults and 35-37% youths.
Crime Rate
Police variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower crime rate if police expenditure was increased, thus also a higher crime rate if police expenditure was decreased. The figure in the numerator can be changed with the ‘maximum crime rate’ variable which represents the asymptotic crime rate percentage. Where police = 100 the selected crime rate is maximised.
Avoiding Gaol
Originally the formula incorporated the police as a variable, where the total amount of convicted crimes was subtracted from the total amount of crimes committed. However, the constant flow of crimes from repeat offender/a created an unrealistic fluctuation in the simulation. I settled for a constant avoidance rate of 25%. This assumes that an adult or youth committing a crime for the first time is just as likely to avoid conviction as a repeat offender.
Conviction
It is difficult to predict in a mathematical model how many adults or youths are convicted of crimes they commit. I determined a reasonable guess of maximum 75% conviction rate when Police = 100. In this formula, decreasing police spending equates into decreased conviction rate, which is considered a realistic representation.
Released
It is assumed that the average sentence for a youth is approximately 6 months detention. For an adult, it will be assumed that the average sentence is 12 months gaol. The discrepancy is due to a few basic considerations that include 1. Adults are more often involved in serious crime which carries a longer sentence 2. youths are convicted with shorter sentences for the same crime, in the hopes that they will have a higher probability of full rehabilitation.
Engagement
Rate of adult/youth engagement was estimated to be a linear relation. The maximum rate of engagement, assuming expenditure = 100, is set to 80%. This rate of engagement is a reasonable guess with consideration that there will also exist adults who refused to engage in the community and end up in crime, and adults or youth that refuse to engage in the community or crime.
Boredom
Engagement Expenditure variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower boredom rate with a higher engagement expenditure, and thus a higher boredom rate with a lower engagement expenditure. The figure in the numerator of 25 represents the asymptotic boredom rate percentage, where if engagement expenditure = 100 the adult/youth boredom rate is maximised at 25%.
Assessment #3 Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW 44841396
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
About/Background:
This model provides a simulation of the youth where it depicts the interactions and activities amongst the parameters in this situation. The town of Bourke have been dealing with the issue of a high crime rate amongst the young and many being locked up which as a result has shattered families. Now the government is deciding on how they would approach spending their money on and this model will depict the various solutions and give an indicator of how it effective it maybe.
Initial Values:
Home - 1000
Juvenile Detention - 0
Sporting Clubs - 0
Trade Skills - 0
Petty Crime - 0
Interpersonal Relationships - 0
Variables:
Youth Redevelopment Expenditure: The value that the state government are able to spend on trade skills and sporting clubs
Interpersonal skills: The rate at which how proficient a youth can be with their interpersonal relationships with others
Police: The number of police that are available in the town of Bourke
Rehab: A certain proportion of those that are in the juvenile detention, will be rehabilitated
Assumptions:
- The youth population (Home) will be 1000 (a third of the population of Bourke's 3000)
- When there is an increase of police it will result in an increase amount of youths being caught as well as a decrease in crimes being committed
- When someone goes to juvenile detention and understood their mistakes, when they are released they will no longer have the urge to commit a crime
- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure will affect participation rates and reduce crime rates
- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure is spread equally to sporting clubs and trade skills
- Youths that participate in sporting clubs, trade skills and Interpersonal relationships will be less likely to commit a crime
- Those in juvenile detention will be released after a period of 6 months where a proportion of them have been rehabilitated.
Interesting Results:
1. If all the sliders are set to half (Police - 30, Rehab - 50, Youth Redevelopment Expenditure - 50, Interpersonal Skill - 50), Sporting Club appears to be the most popular community development program for youths
2. If police and Youth Redevelopment are to its max and rehab and interpersonal are set to 0, there seems be a much lower rate of crime being committed as well as higher number of youths participating in sporting clubs
3. If police was to be at its lowest (10), youth redevelopment at 100, rehab and interpersonal skill at 50, crime appears to be low while maintaining high rate of youth participating in sporting clubs and trade skills.
Assignment 3 Visagan 44888104
WIP summaries of bill mitchell's blog postings related to the connections between macroeconomics and wellbeing, particularly via unemployment and inflation
Clone of Unemployment and wellbeing
Bourke is a remote town approximately 650km from Sydney with a population of 2634. 28% of the population us made up of youths from 19 years old and younger. With a reputation of being one of the most dangerous towns in New South Wales.
To combat this, the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project was established to manage the situation with a goal of reducing youth crime through a serious of community projects including Early Years Transition (to prepare children for school) and Drive for Free, a program where volunteer police officers provide free driving lessons.
This model has been developed to demonstrate how youth alienation, police and community development interact with each other.
Assumption
The following assumptions have been made:
25% of youths between the ages 10 - 24 are engaged in criminal behaviour.
75% have positive engagement in society
Youth age group is from 5 years - 24 years
Youths have a 48% chance of not be rehabilitated and re-offending
Conclusion
It is evident, investment in early educational programs will have a positive impact on Youths within the township of Bourke. Attendance rates have grown from 86% to 92%. The provision of a strong educational program will contribute to breaking the cycle and result in more youths growing up to have a positive impact on society. Attendance rate for schools will improve and there will be an increase number of students who complete year 12 and transition to tertiary educations and/or employment.
Investment of personal time of members of the police force to teach youths how to drive, has not only provided the kids with an opportunity they wouldn't ordinarily have due to family circumstances, but also decrease the amount of vehicle related offences.
There is a correlation between the investment of time and money to provide the you members of Bourke's society with the right education and positive reinforcement with the reduction of criminal/negative behaviour.
Bibliography
NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. (2020). NSW Local Government Area excel crime tables.
Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Retrieved from Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument
Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from ABC News: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114
Conceptual model of youth alienation, police and community develop in Bourke
THE MODEL
Underlying assumptions:
- Police Force has a negative relationship with
committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
- Community Investment has a negative relationship
with committed crime.
- Family – Police relations is negatively related
to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed
crime.
- Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as
this model mainly focuses on this population).
- Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need
more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.
Constants:
- It took six months for Community Investment
(which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family –
Police Relations to work.
- Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.
Things to note:
- Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because
of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate
(police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was
used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three
rates.
- Those violent families were detected by the
Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad
effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the
likelihood of committing crimes.
- Community Investment in forming soccer team,
trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals
(the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances
of committing crimes of these individuals.
- Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the
best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because
detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the
community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment
campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for
Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.
Initial values:
Youth in town: 1200.
Criminals: 100.
Juvenile Detention: 100.
Violent families: 300
Detected violent families: 100.
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
WIP summaries of bill mitchell's blog postings related to the connections between macroeconomics and wellbeing, particularly via unemployment and inflation
Unemployment and wellbeing
THE MODEL
Underlying assumptions:
- Police Force has a negative relationship with
committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
- Community Investment has a negative relationship
with committed crime.
- Family – Police relations is negatively related
to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed
crime.
- Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as
this model mainly focuses on this population).
- Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need
more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.
Constants:
- It took six months for Community Investment
(which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family –
Police Relations to work.
- Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.
Things to note:
- Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because
of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate
(police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was
used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three
rates.
- Those violent families were detected by the
Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad
effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the
likelihood of committing crimes.
- Community Investment in forming soccer team,
trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals
(the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances
of committing crimes of these individuals.
- Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the
best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because
detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the
community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment
campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for
Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.
Initial values:
Youth in town: 1200.
Criminals: 100.
Juvenile Detention: 100.
Violent families: 300
Detected violent families: 100.
Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
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