Science | Insight Maker

FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION
BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

FORCED GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman

5

Perceptual Control Theory Model of Balancing an Inverted Pendulum. See Kennaway's slides on Robotics. as well as PCT example WIP notes. Compare with IM-1831 from Z209 from Hartmut Bossel's System Zoo 1 p112-118

Balancing an Inverted Pendulum PCT Model

Geoff McDonnell

3

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

32

Causal loop diagram illustrating how evolution, in the form of small incremental change (realized through random genetic mutation) paired with natural selection, serves to evolve species.

Additionally, the diagram illustrates the countering effects of genetic drift, which serves to reduce genetic variation by eliminating beneficial genes.

Evolutionary Change (2-Loop)

Franz Weismann

3

Causal loop diagram illustrating how the ice-albedo feedback system contributes to arctic ice loss.

Climate Change Influencer: Arctic Ice Loss (1-Loop; Reinforcing)

Franz Weismann

17

Jameson's Unlimited Kinematics Physics

Jameson Wright

Kinematics Physics

Jon Darkow

5

A launchpad to tie together some ideas about Reality. See wikipedia

Reality

Geoff McDonnell

Causal loop diagram illustrating Methane hydrate release (R1), which amplifies the naturally occurring greenhouse effect.

Climate Change Influencer: Methane Release (1-Loop; Reinforcing)

Franz Weismann

8

Facebook behaviors

richhomiequan

UNfolding story book summary based on Tech St Petersburg blog entry , Rowley 2015 and Jensen 1978 books/ translations and recent U of Hull CSS seminar june 2021 (links via twitter @OrsanS)

Bogdanov Philosophy of Living Experience

Geoff McDonnell

4 months ago

Forest Food Web

Jessica McDonald

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Guy Lakeman

18

This is a giant food web of deep sea life.

Clone of Deep Sea Food Web

Tamara Djerdj

Elephant Butte Bucket From Excel

Mark A Sheler

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

a positive integer 'shape'
a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

Clone of S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman

Nilo Guimaraes

Causal loop diagram illustrating how evolution, in the form of small incremental change (realized through random genetic mutation) paired with natural selection, serves to evolve species.

Additionally, the diagram illustrates the countering effects of genetic drift, which serves to reduce genetic variation by eliminating beneficial genes.

Clone of Evolutionary Change (2-Loop)

Rodrigo Barbosa de Santis

A model of the exponential growth and collapse of E. coli.

Clone of E coli life cycle model

Pallavi Joshi

Thanks to
https://insightmaker.com/insight/1830/Rossler-Chaotic-Attractor
for this example of chaos, and the transition to chaos. "After running the default settings Bossel describes A=0.2, B=0.2, Initial Values X=0 Y=2 and Z=0 and varying C=2,3,4,5 shows period doubling and transition to chaotic behavior."

We're looking into environmental applications in our course, and how dramatically dynamics can change, based on a small change in parameters. Climate change "suffers" this chaotic behavior, we fear, and we're going to be "taken by surprise" when the dynamics changes on us suddenly....

Andy Long

The Rossler Chaotic Attractor

Andrew E Long

Overview of Evaluation Approaches from Pawson and Tilley's Book comparing Realist, Constructivist, Experimental and Pragmatic Evaluation Approaches. Combined with Van de Ven's Alternative Philosophies of Science in his Engaged Scholarship book. See also Burrell and Morgan's research paradigms video

Realistic and Other Evaluation Methods

Geoff McDonnell

8 months ago