This model simulates the effects of (community
engagement expenditure); (policing expenditure); and (unemployment, alcohol,
drugs); on the population of Burke, NSW.
These variables can be manipulated for
policy makers to see how changes in community engagement and policing expenditure
affect other parts of the community. Unemployment, alcohol and drugs are added
in a variable that can be adjusted as these levels will change from year to
year.
Assumptions
Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.
Initial Values
600 alienated people
480 people committing crime
250 people arrested awaiting Trial
500 people in Jail
1000 people active in Community Groups
6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle
Constants
20% of youth and adults will become
disengaged with society
80% of alienated people are at risk of
committing a crime
20% of alienated people become re-engaged
in society by their own will
90% of those arrested are put in jail and
10% are not charged
80% of youth and adults join potentially
will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend
Variables
Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.
The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.
The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail.
Outcomes
With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.
An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.
A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.
If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.
Recommendations
If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.
