Weather Models
These models and simulations have been tagged “Weather”.
Related tagsScienceClimatePoliticsStrategyEnvironmentEconomics
64
HYSTERESIS
The lost energy associated with delay.
Hysteresis is the dependence of a system not only on its current environment but also on its past environment. This dependence arises because the system can be in more than one internal state. To predict its future development, either its internal state or its history must be known.[1] If a given input alternately increases and decreases, the output tends to form a loop as in the figure. However, loops may also occur because of a dynamic lag between input and output.
Hysteresis is produced by positive feedback to avoid unwanted rapid switching. Hysteresis has been identified in many other fields, including economics and biology.
The lost energy associated with delay.
Hysteresis is the dependence of a system not only on its current environment but also on its past environment. This dependence arises because the system can be in more than one internal state. To predict its future development, either its internal state or its history must be known.[1] If a given input alternately increases and decreases, the output tends to form a loop as in the figure. However, loops may also occur because of a dynamic lag between input and output.
Hysteresis is produced by positive feedback to avoid unwanted rapid switching. Hysteresis has been identified in many other fields, including economics and biology.
Economic systems can exhibit hysteresis. For example, export performance is subject to strong hysteresis effects: because of the fixed transportation costs it may take a big push to start a country's exports, but once the transition is made, not much may be required to keep them going.
Hysteresis is used extensively in the area of labor markets. According to theories based on hysteresis, economic downturns (recession) result in an individual becoming unemployed, losing his/her skills (commonly developed 'on the job'), demotivated/disillusioned, and employers may use time spent in unemployment as a screen. In times of an economic upturn or 'boom', the workers affected will not share in the prosperity, remaining long-term unemployed (over 52 weeks). Hysteresis has been put forward[by whom?] as a possible explanation for the poor unemployment performance of many economies in the 1990s. Labor market reform, or strong economic growth, may not therefore aid this pool of long-term unemployed, and thus specific targeted training programs are presented as a possible policy solution.
One type of hysteresis is a simple lag between input and output. A simple example would be a sinusoidal input X(t) and output Y(t)that are separated by a phase lag φ:
Such behavior can occur in linear systems, and a more general form of response is
where χi is the instantaneous response and Φd(t-τ) is the response at time t to an impulse at time τ. In the frequency domain, input and output are related by a complex generalized susceptibility.[3]
Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position. Similarly the direction a pencil falls when held on its tip, or an universe during its initial stages.
These attractors apply to social systems and economics showing jumps between potential wells, and showing the strategic scaling behavior of rotating and cyclic systems whether they be social, economic, or complex spin or rotation of planets affecting weather and climate or spin of galaxies or elementary particles, or even a rock on the end of a piece of string.
What Playing with numbers is all about :)
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
Drought
Transport
Silicene
Graphene
Resource
Solar
Nuclear
Energy
Food
Agriculture
Cyclone
Tornado
Typhoon
Hurricane
Loss
Flood
Animals
Plants
Fish
Sea
Ocean
Yield
Regeneration
Pollution
Lifetime
Rural
Industrial
Urban
Labor
Jobs
Land
Resources
Services
Health
Fertility
Politics
Economics
Strategy
Engineering
Technology
Science
Mortality
Death
Failure
Climate
Weather
Population
Population Growth
Demographics
Environment
THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
31
S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution
Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers
This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model
The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:
- a positive integer 'shape'
- a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.
Death
Strategy
Engineering
Technology
Science
Mortality
Energy
Failure
Climate
Economics
Weather
Politics
Fertility
Population
Population Growth
Demographics
Environment
Health
Services
Resources
Land
Jobs
Labor
Urban
Industrial
Rural
Lifetime
Pollution
Regeneration
Yield
Ocean
Sea
Fish
Plants
Animals
Flood
Drought
Loss
Hurricane
Typhoon
Tornado
Cyclone
Agriculture
Transport
Silicene
Graphene
Resource
Solar
Food
Nuclear
THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
17
Yield
Transport
Silicene
Graphene
Resource
Solar
Nuclear
Energy
Food
Agriculture
Cyclone
Tornado
Typhoon
Hurricane
Loss
Drought
Flood
Animals
Plants
Fish
Sea
Ocean
Regeneration
Pollution
Lifetime
Rural
Industrial
Urban
Labor
Jobs
Land
Resources
Services
Health
Fertility
Politics
Economics
Strategy
Engineering
Technology
Science
Mortality
Death
Failure
Climate
Weather
Population
Population Growth
Demographics
Environment
THE 2020 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.
THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED
Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.
11
Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position. Similarly the direction a pencil falls when held on its tip, or an universe during its initial stages.
These attractors apply to social systems and economics showing jumps between potential wells, and showing the strategic scaling behavior of rotating and cyclic systems whether they be social, economic, or complex spin or rotation of planets affecting weather and climate or spin of galaxies or elementary particles, or even a rock on the end of a piece of string.
What Playing with numbers is all about :)
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position. Similarly the direction a pencil falls when held on its tip, or an universe during its initial stages.
These attractors apply to social systems and economics showing jumps between potential wells, and showing the strategic scaling behavior of rotating and cyclic systems whether they be social, economic, or complex spin or rotation of planets affecting weather and climate or spin of galaxies or elementary particles, or even a rock on the end of a piece of string.
What Playing with numbers is all about :)
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position. Similarly the direction a pencil falls when held on its tip, or an universe during its initial stages.
These attractors apply to social systems and economics showing jumps between potential wells, and showing the strategic scaling behavior of rotating and cyclic systems whether they be social, economic, or complex spin or rotation of planets affecting weather and climate or spin of galaxies or elementary particles, or even a rock on the end of a piece of string.
What Playing with numbers is all about :)
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
Butterfly Effect
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
\mathrm{e}^{a\tau} \, d(x,y)." src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/8/3/5/8355530aeaa6df83fe2a7851508f881a.png" style="border: none; vertical-align: middle;">
Sensitivity To Initial Conditions
(sensitive dependence on initial conditions)
Navier Stokes Equations
Lorenz Attractor
Chaos Theory, Disorder and Entropy
Although the butterfly effect may appear to be an esoteric and unlikely behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill may roll into any of several valleys depending on, among other things, slight differences in initial position. Similarly the direction a pencil falls when held on its tip, or an universe during its initial stages.
These attractors apply to social systems and economics showing jumps between potential wells, and showing the strategic scaling behavior of rotating and cyclic systems whether they be social, economic, or complex spin or rotation of planets affecting weather and climate or spin of galaxies or elementary particles, or even a rock on the end of a piece of string.
What Playing with numbers is all about :)
If M is the state space for the map , then displays sensitive dependence to initial conditions if for any x in M and any δ > 0, there are y in M, with such that
\mathrm{e}^{a\tau} \, d(x,y)." src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/8/3/5/8355530aeaa6df83fe2a7851508f881a.png" style="border: none; vertical-align: middle;">
S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution
Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers
This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model
The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:
- a positive integer 'shape'
- a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.
