This model shows the interdependent relationship between Disengaged Youth, Crime Rates and Police Detecting within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.

Assumptions

This model assumes that total youth population of Bourke is 1,000 people.

Variables

Detected by Police – can be adjusted upwards or downwards to simulate the effect on engagement and crime levels.

The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke

The model

This model simulates the effects of youth alienation, risk behaviours (unemployment and drug and alcohol abuse), community engagement expenditure and police expenditure on youth engagement in the town of Bourke,

Assumptions

Youth population 15-24 years old.

At risk behaviours may include illegal activity, isolation and impulsive and self-destructive behaviour.

Initial Values

Youth population in the town of Burke is 1000

 Constants

80% of socially disengaged youth will become alienated.

50% of alienated youth will commit a crime.

70% of alienated youth who commit a crime will be arrested.

20% of youth arrested will be convicted and sent to youth detention

60% of youth arrested and not convicted will return to their former life of social disengagement.

20% of youth arrested will not be convicted and be rehabilitated

 Variables (Sliders)

Unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact a high rate of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse has on youth alienation leading to illegal activity (committing a crime). The variable can also be reduced to show how a decrease in unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse can reduce illegal activity.

Police Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of youth being arrested and going to youth detention and potentially being rehabilitated.

Community Engagement Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of having community engagement expenditure to create positive behaviour changes in alienated youth. Positive behavioural changes decrease when this variable is reduced.

Conclusion

When the sliders are set to a moderate range (unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse – 18, police expenditure – 12, community engagement expenditure – 25), relationships between variables and stocks are apparent. The increase of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse show an increase in alienation, crime and youth detention. When police expenditure is increased, despite there being an increase in arrests and individuals in youth detention, there is an increase in youth rehabilitation in the town, which prompts positive behavioural changes. When community engagement expenditure is increased there is the increase of community programs which leads to positive behavioural changes after rehabilitation.

The effects of youth engagement in the town of Burke

The model

This model simulates the effects of youth alienation, risk behaviours (unemployment and drug and alcohol abuse), community engagement expenditure and police expenditure on youth engagement in the town of Bourke,

Assumptions

Youth population 15-24 years old.

At risk behaviours may include illegal activity, isolation and impulsive and self-destructive behaviour.

Initial Values

Youth population in the town of Burke is 1000

 Constants

80% of socially disengaged youth will become alienated.

50% of alienated youth will commit a crime.

70% of alienated youth who commit a crime will be arrested.

20% of youth arrested will be convicted and sent to youth detention

60% of youth arrested and not convicted will return to their former life of social disengagement.

20% of youth arrested will not be convicted and be rehabilitated

 Variables (Sliders)

Unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact a high rate of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse has on youth alienation leading to illegal activity (committing a crime). The variable can also be reduced to show how a decrease in unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse can reduce illegal activity.

Police Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of youth being arrested and going to youth detention and potentially being rehabilitated.

Community Engagement Expenditure: this variable can be adjusted to show the impact of having community engagement expenditure to create positive behaviour changes in alienated youth. Positive behavioural changes decrease when this variable is reduced.

Conclusion

When the sliders are set to a moderate range (unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse – 18, police expenditure – 12, community engagement expenditure – 25), relationships between variables and stocks are apparent. The increase of unemployment, drugs and alcohol abuse show an increase in alienation, crime and youth detention. When police expenditure is increased, despite there being an increase in arrests and individuals in youth detention, there is an increase in youth rehabilitation in the town, which prompts positive behavioural changes. When community engagement expenditure is increased there is the increase of community programs which leads to positive behavioural changes after rehabilitation.

This model shows the interdependent relationship between Disengaged Youth, Crime Rates and Police Detecting within the youth population of Bourke, NSW.

Assumptions

This model assumes that total youth population of Bourke is 1,000 people.

Variables

Detected by Police – can be adjusted upwards or downwards to simulate the effect on engagement and crime levels.