A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, which includes first order approximations of its radiation balance (black bodies), including two radiation modulating effects i.e. albedo and green house and two heat storages (ocean and atmosphere). It is a lumped model which does not consider spatial variations and resulting mass transports - thus no heat exchange between e.g. equatorial and polar regions...
As a consequence all values are surface specific i.e. per square meter. E.g. the energy balance is the  balance in  W/m² and the heat reservoirs are water and air columns with a cross section of 1 m²...

The fact that we all strive to reduce psychologically inconsistent thoughts  is a well-researched phenomenon. When we hold two conflicting thoughts in our heads we feel an overwhelming desire to reduce this conflict. This desire can be a powerful driver in the way we behave. Most of us are aware at some level that if we took the threat of climate change seriously we would need to completely change our routines and the way we behave. Flying off on holiday would be out of the question. Swimming pools would be a past luxury. Most of us would need to give up our cars and become vegetarians. The list can be extended almost endlessly. Very often, subconsciously, we try to reduce troubling and inconvenient facts by minimizing, ignoring or even by denying them. Could this be why we hardly talk about climate change even in the face of increasingly frequent extreme weather events and obvious signs that it is occurring now?

This subject needs to be openly talked about between us and in the press. The seriousness of global warming makes it a necessity.  Only when this happens will politicians have the space and incentive to act on our behalf. But before this can happen we need to be aware of the reason why we avoid talking about this subject – this graph tries to illustrate the harmful dynamic that could be responsible for it.

​

Capitalism is in crisis and climate change disruption is now beginning to hit the bottom line. Insurance companies know this well. According to a report by the Bank of England, insured losses have risen from $10 000 million in 1985 to $50 000 million in 2015. Climate change cannot be reversed, and extreme weather events  will undoubtedly get worse in the future strengthening the disruptive effects shown in the CLD.  Another dynamic is that companies will continue to automate and, as The Economic Policy Institute has shown, fail to reflect  productivity gains in workers' salaries. The result, stagnating salaries is disastrous for demand, given that capitalism needs endlessly rising demand and consumption. A further serious problem is that as climate change gets worse there will be increasing demands for companies to assume their responsibility and bear the costs of negative externalities.  The CLD shows these factors which are likely to lead to the collapse of the system: when capitalism can no longer generate 'capital' it has stopped to serves any useful purpose. 

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

Narrative influence model sketching influence links in energy-economy-emissions

simulation oc carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

Changes to V17: capacity retirement updated, fraction of Al in energy intensities endognously calculated; fC repair is now also limited by Al supply gap

The concept of 'CLOSING A FEEDBACK LOOP'  means that a loop is closed to affect the person or agents that originally are  responsible for an action so that they plainly feel its effects. This almost inevitable leads to corrective action. One of the reasons why climate change does not  arouse passion and action is that it is largely invisible and most people are not aware of it, although extreme weather events are beginning to change this somewhat. The schematic representation shows how systems thinking might help to draw attention to such situations by graphically connecting the dots to promote understand and hopefully action when people realize that there is a price to be paid for inaction.  Please note, however, that the loop does not describe dynamic behaviour in the normal system dynamics sense. 

A model of a typical Australian sheep farm, where wool is the primary product, with first-cross fat lambs a secondary product.

A model of a typical Australian sheep farm, where wool is the primary product, with first-cross fat lambs a secondary product.

Fajardo, Paul Gabriel E.