Simple stock model illustrating the relationship between increasing temperature and amount of rainforest loss per year

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

Various factors affecting South East Queensland's koala population. 

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances,  and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black bodies) radiation balance, and includes two radiation modulating effects i.e. albedo and green house as well as two heat stores (ocean and atmosphere). It is a lumped model which does not consider spatial variations and resulting mass transports - thus no heat exchange between e.g. equatorial and polar regions. As a consequence all values are surface specific i.e. per square meter. The radiation balance is in  W/m² and the heat reservoirs are in J/m² i.e. water and air columns with a cross section of 1 m².

If all Americans believed that extreme weather events, droughts and wildfires are primarily caused by climate change they would soon react and demand immediate action from their political leaders. It is likely that this will happen fairly soon because of the dynamic hidden in the phrase 'Climate Change'. Wolfgang von Goethe the famous German poet and scientist said  ''we only see what we know". Cognitive psychology largely agrees and says that we only understand what we see - and give importance to it -  if we have a schema  (mental model) for what we are looking at.  As the terms 'Climate Change' become more widely used people will try to understand what they mean and start to construct schemas. As a result of this process they will soon  see  extreme weather events and wild fire in a different light as the occur again and again - after all, climate scientists told us that  their numbers and severity would  increase as a result of climate change. This simple CLD tries to illustrate this dynamic. It suggests that if you want to speed up this process, a good strategy would be to point out at every occasion possible that an increase of extreme weather events and droughts is precisely what climate scientists predicted!

simulation oc carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, which includes first order approximations of its radiation balance (black bodies), including two radiations modulating effects i.e. albedo and green house and uses two heat storages (ocean and atmosphere). It is a lumped model which does not consider spatial variations thus e.g. no heat exchange between equatorial and polar regions (lateral).

The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances,  and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, which includes first order approximations of its radiation balance (black bodies), including two radiation modulating effects i.e. albedo and green house and two heat storages (ocean and atmosphere). It is a lumped model which does not consider spatial variations and resulting mass transports - thus no heat exchange between e.g. equatorial and polar regions...
As a consequence all values are surface specific i.e. per square meter. E.g. the energy balance is the  balance in  W/m² and the heat reservoirs are water and air columns with a cross section of 1 m²...

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.