#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### Jushua Baldoceda

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

- 7 years 3 months ago

#### Clone of USA Demographic change

##### Roberts Eberlins

- 5 years 1 week ago

#### Clone of USA Demographic change

##### Davids Vikmanis

- 4 years 8 months ago

#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### Kevin Ring

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

- 5 years 8 months ago

#### Clone of OVERSHOOT GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

##### Brian Lee

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth Strategy Weather

- 4 years 9 months ago

#### poultry dynamics fowl pox

##### David Oseguera Montiel

- 1 year 5 months ago

#### Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"

##### Christine

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

- 6 years 2 months ago

#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### Teresa Zagar

- 5 years 4 months ago

#### Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"

##### Julia Cammann

- 6 years 2 months ago

#### Clone of POPULATION LOGISTIC MAP (WITH FEEDBACK)

##### Andriy Samilyak

the maximum population is set to be one million, and the growth rate constant mu = 3. Nj: is the “number of items” in our current generation.

Delta Nj: is the “change in number of items” as we go from the present generation into the next generation. This is just the number of items born minus the number of items who have died.

mu: is the growth or birth rate parameter, similar to that in the exponential growth and decay model. However, as we extend our model it will no longer be the actual growth rate, but rather just a constant that tends to control the actual growth rate without being directly proportional to it.

F(Nj) = mu(1‐Nj/Nmax): is our model for the effective “growth rate”, a rate that decreases as the number of items approaches the maximum allowed by external factors such as food supply, disease or predation. (You can think of mu as the growth or birth rate in the absence of population pressure from other items.) We write this rate as F(Nj), which is a mathematical way of saying F is affected by the number of items, i.e., “F is a function of Nj”. It combines both growth and all the various environmental constraints on growth into a single function. This is a good approach to modeling; start with something that works (exponential growth) and then modify it incrementally, while still incorporating the working model.

Nj+1 = Nj + Delta Nj : This is a mathematical way to say, “The new number of items equals the old number of items plus the change in number of items”.

Nj/Nmax: is what fraction a population has reached of the maximum "carrying capacity" allowed by the external environment. We use this fraction to change the overall growth rate of the population. In the real world, as well as in our model, it is possible for a population to be greater than the maximum population (which is usually an average of many years), at least for a short period of time. This means that we can expect fluctuations in which Nj/Nmax is greater than 1.

This equation is a form of what is known as the logistic map or equation. It is a map because it "maps'' the population in one year into the population of the next year. It is "logistic'' in the military sense of supplying a population with its needs. It a nonlinear equation because it contains a term proportional to Nj^2 and not just Nj. The logistic map equation is also an example of discrete mathematics. It is discrete because the time variable j assumes just integer values, and consequently the variables Nj+1 and Nj do not change continuously into each other, as would a function N(t). In addition to the variables Nj and j, the equation also contains the two parameters mu, the growth rate, and Nmax, the maximum population. You can think of these as "constants'' whose values are determined from external sources and remain fixed as one year of items gets mapped into the next year. However, as part of viewing the computer as a laboratory in which to experiment, and as part of the scientific process, you should vary the parameters in order to explore how the model reacts to changes in them.

Environment MATHS Mathematics Chaos Fractals BIFURCATION Model Economics Finance TURBULENCE Population Growth DECAY STABILITY SUSTAINABLE Engineering Science Demographics Strategy

- 3 years 10 months ago

#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### Per Rosshaug

- 7 years 9 months ago

#### Clone of USA Demographic change

##### Andris Ševčenko

- 5 years 9 months ago

#### Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"

##### DerTheo

- 6 years 2 months ago

#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### Ute Hahn

- 5 years 4 months ago

#### Clone of Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### xiaomi

- 5 years 11 months ago

#### Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"

##### Julius

- 6 years 2 months ago

#### Clone of Clone of Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### M

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

- 5 years 2 months ago

#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### Roberto Marquez

- 4 years 10 months ago

#### Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"

##### Nora Baumgartner

- 6 years 2 months ago

#### Clone of USA Demographic change

##### Eric Economy

- 5 years 6 months ago

#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### Egidio Bernini

- 6 years 9 months ago

#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### manuelm ch

- 7 years 3 months ago

#### Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"

##### Julia Cammann

- 6 years 2 months ago

#### Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster

##### Becky Haney

- 6 years 5 months ago