According
to The Guardian (30-06-2017) US President Donald Trump is trying to annul an existing
ban on drilling for oil in the Arctic. However, a the self-reinforcing methane feedback
loop, illustrated here by a causal loop
diagram, is likely to frustrate his intentions. Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas that
is about 150 times more potent than CO2 over a short time of a few years and 86
times more potent over a period of 20 years. It is leaking now from hotspots on
the sea floor covering an area of about 200 000 km2 of the East Siberian Arctic
Shelf according to estimates by the scientists Natalia Shakhova and Dr. Igor
Semiletov. These hotspots are growing
exponentially and there is little doubt that much of the gas is reaching the surface, forming the dangerous self-reinforcing
feedback loop described.
Building platforms to extract oil from the Arctic ocean is
costly and takes years to complete. At
present, oil prices of around US $ 45 per barrel make such projects unviable -
oil companies need at least $ 100 per
barrel for such a risky undertaking. But it is the additional cost of
infrastructure damage from extreme weather events to transport systems and
ports that will add to the cost and make
it financially unattractive to exploit the Arctic in the future. The methane
feedback loop will be a powerful contributor to that situation as it causes Arctic
temperatures rise, which in turn will worsen extreme weather events. As the
methane feedback loop exerts its destructive influence, I expect that there will never be a commercially
viable and operational US oil platform
in the Arctic ocean
