These models and simulations have been tagged “Positive-Lifestyle”.
Burke Total Population: It is assumed that the total population of Burke is 10,000 people with 70% adults and 30% youth.
600 alienated people
480 people committing crime
250 people arrested awaiting Trial
500 people in Jail
1000 people active in Community Groups
6000 people living a Positive Lifestyle
20% of youth and adults will become
disengaged with society
80% of alienated people are at risk of
committing a crime
20% of alienated people become re-engaged
in society by their own will
90% of those arrested are put in jail and
10% are not charged
80% of youth and adults join potentially
will join community groups dependent on community engagement spend
Community Engagement Expenditure can be raised to increase the amount of youth and adults joining a community group which can lead to a positive lifestyle.
The Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable can be changed to effect the rate at which disengaged people become alienated from society.
The Policing Expenditure variable can be changed to effect the number of people being arrested and also going to jail.
With the variables set at minimum Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs and maximum Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure we see the level of crime and people in jail fall to near zero and positive lifestyle surge upwards.
An increase in the Unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.
A drop in Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure to 50% shows a sharp increase in the amount of alienation which increases the amount of crime and then people in jail.
If Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people in jail reduces to near zero.
If unemployment, Alcohol and Drugs remain at 10%, then maximum amounts of expenditure on Community Engagement and Policing will have the best results for people living a positive lifestyle in Bourke.
HOW A NEW COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT INITATIVE MAY IMPACT YOUTH
CRIME IN THE TOWN OF BOURKE, NSW
MKT563 Assessment 4:
Aim of Simulation:
Bourke is a
town in which Youth are involved in high rates of criminal behaviour (Thompson,
2016). This simulation focuses on how
implementation of a community engagement initiative may impact crime patterns
of youths in Bourke. The specific aim is to assess whether the town
should initiate a program such as the Big Brothers Big Sisters Community-Based
Mentoring (CBM) (Blueprints for Healthy Youth
2018) program to reduce crime and antisocial behaviour (National Institute of
Justice, n.d). Big Brothers Big Sisters
is a community mentoring program which matches a volunteer adult mentor to an
at-risk child or adolescent to delay or reduce antisocial behaviours; improve
academic success, attitudes and behaviours, peer and family relationships;
strength self-concept; and provide social and cultural enrichment (Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development, 2018).
InsightMaker model is used to simulate the influence of Big Brothers Big
Sisters Initiative on Criminal Behaviour (leading to 60% juvenile detention
rates) with variables including participation
rate and also drug and alcohol use.
1/ ‘Youth’ are
defined, for statistical purposes, as those persons between the ages of 15 and
24 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, n.d).
population (15 – 24 years) makes up 14.1% of the total population of LGA Bourke
which according to the most up-to-date freely available Census data (2008) is
3091 (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010).
Therefore, youth population has been calculated as 435 individuals.
3/ Big Brothers
Big Sisters Program is assumed to impact LGA Bourke in a similar manner that
has been shown in previous studies (Tierney, Grossman, and Resch, 2000) where
initiative showed mentored youths in the program were 46% significantly less
likely to initiate drug use and 27 percent less likely to initiate alcohol use,
compared to control. They were 32 less
likely to have struct someone during the previous 12 months. Compared to control group, the mentored
youths earned higher grades, skipped fewer classes and fewer days of school and
felt more competent about doing their schoolwork (non-significant). Research also found that mentored youths,
compared with control counterparts, displayed significantly better
relationships with parents. Emotional
support among peers was higher than controls.
Population = 435
Behaviour = 100
40% of youth
population who commit a crime are non-convicted
60% of youth
population who commit a crime are convicted
20% of youth
involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are non-engaged
80% of youth
involved in the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative are engaged
include ‘Participation Rate’ and ‘Drug and Alcohol Usage’. These variables can be adjusted as these
levels may be able to be impacted by other initiatives which the community can
assess for introduction; these variables may also change in terms of rate over
As can be
seen by increasing the rate of participation to 90% we can see juvenile
detention rate decreases with engagement (even with the 20% non-engagement of
youths involved in program). By moving
the slider to 10% participation however you can see the criminal behaviour
simulation, we can clearly see that the community of Bourke would benefit in
terms of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Initiative decreasing criminal behaviour
in youths (15 – 24 years of age) over a 5-year timeframe. Further investigation regarding expenditure
and logistics to implement such a program is warranted based on the simulation
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2010).
Census Data for Bourke LGA.
Retrieved from www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/LGA11150Population/People12002-2006?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=LGA11150&issue=2002-2006
Blueprints for Healthy Youth Development. (2018).
Big Brothers Big
Sisters of America Blueprints Program Rating: Promising, viewed 26 May
Institute of Justice. (n.d.). Program Profile: Big Brothers Big Sisters
(BBBS) Community-Based Mentoring (CBM) Program,
viewed 26th May 2018, <https://www.crimesolutions.gov/ProgramDetails.aspx?ID=112>
Tierney, J.P., Grossman, J.B., and
Resch, N.L. (2000). Making a Difference: An Impact Study of Big Brothers/Big Sisters.
Philadelphia, Pa.: Public/Private Ventures.
Thompson, G. (2016) Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach
is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from < www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114>
United Nations Department
of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA).
(n.d.). Definition of Youth,
viewed 24th May 2018, www.un.org/esa/socdev/documents/youth/fact-sheets/youth-definition.pdf
Justice Reinvestment in Bourke
One part of this model is displaying the typical lifestyle of many adults and youth in the town Bourke, North West of New South Wales. This lifestyle involves committing crime, getting arrested for the crime by police (or getting away with it) and spending time in jail (for adults) or juvenile detention (for the youth) or simply getting discharged.
Additionally to this traditional lifestyle being modelled, an alternative option called community groups has also been incorporated into the model. The model is showing that members of Bourke have the option to join a community group which the government hopes will improve their lifestyle when they are immersed once again into society, thus reducing the rate of crime.
The Stocks Involved:
Adult- The adults living in BourkeYouth- The adolescents living in BourkePetty Crime- The standard crime committed by the youth of Bourke. This can include stealing cars and breaking into property.Crime- The common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke. This includes domestic violence often as a result of heavy drinking.Apprehended- Youth getting captured by the policeArrested- Adults getting caught by the policeJuvenile Detention- Alienation of youth by policeJail- Adults locked up by the policeCommunity Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Includes development activities, sporting clubs and trade-skill learning classes.Positive Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves as a result of joining these community groups (the goal of community engagement program expenditure).
The Variables Involved and How to Adjust Them:
1. Policing: The number of police in the town of Bourke. The level and amount of punishment is dependent on the quantity of police present.
Minimum amount is one as there should be at least one police existent.
2. Community Engagement Expenditure: The total amount of money spent into community groups to develop individuals.
The purpose of the government is to spend money on community engagement activities so the minimum is at least one percent of the money they have available to spend and the maximum is 100 percent of the money they can afford to spend.
--> Both variables have a slider that goes up and down by one step. You can adjust both variables at the same time but take into account both variables have their own minimum and maximum.
-Approximately 3000 people in Bourke
-Coefficients and initial values are arbitrarily chosen. These would be modified with real-life data.
-The only external influences on this model are police and community investment.
Suggested Settings for Interesting Results:
1. First move the policing and community expenditure sliders to their maximum. Hit the simulate button and look at the first time-series graph titled 'Youth Lifestyle'. Notice the delays between increase of each stock and the ordering: As Youth decreases, Petty Crime will increase. Then youth Apprehended will begin to increase followed by those going to Juvenile Detention. Youth will then start to increase again and the trend continues over the 3-year period displayed. Notice how the same pattern occurs for the time-series graph labelled 'Adult Lifestyle'.
2. Move the policing slider to 1 and the community expenditure slider to 100. Hit simulate. Notice in the 'Youth Lifestyle' graph how even with community expenditure at its maximum, over time, Petty Crime will still increase because there are hardly any police and hence hardly any youth getting caught so as a result the youth in Bourke keep to their regular immoral lifestyle. If you view the 'Adult Lifestyle' graph you will see the same pattern. (Note this point is a main reason for the conclusion drawn below).
3. Move the community engagement and policing slider to their minimum 1. Hit simulate. View the third display titled 'Community Engagement Program'. You will notice how Youth and Adult decrease and Crime and Petty Crime increase. Also, since community engagement is at its minimum too (not just policing) the amount of people in Community Groups decreases significantly and as a result the number of individuals creating a Positive Lifestyle for themselves decreases too.
4. Move the Community Engagement Expenditure slider to 1 and the Policing slider to 50 and look particularly at the last display labelled 'Adults and Youth: Membership and Crime Rates'. You will notice instantly how Community Group and Positive Lifestyle always have a lower number of individuals compared to the general Youth and Adult stocks as well as the Crime and Petty Crime stocks. This gives indication that a higher amount of investment should be put into the community engagement programs for better results.
A combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best solution for the people of Bourke as the policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community development programs will help create a positive lifestyle for each individual that joins. Overall it is not efficient to just invest in community development programs. For the most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as investments in community engagement activities.
Note: You do not need to dive into any formulae. But feel free to move the sliders and hit that simulate button to view how the number of people in each stock changes based on the level of policing and community engagement expenditure!
This model simulates the effect of
Police expenditure, Community expenditure and substance abuse (Alcohol and
This model can be used by community
member responsible for making expenditure decision for the community.
The variable can be manipulated for see how changes in
community engagement and policing expenditure affect other parts of the
adolescents living in Bourke
adults living in Bourke
common crime circulating among the adults of Bourke.
Getting captured by the police
Group- Groups formed for the people of Bourke to join. Including development
activities, trade-skill learning classes and sports.
Lifestyle- Adults and youth who have improved themselves because of joining
these community groups and leading a positive lifestyle.
Expenditure - The amount of money spent on community groups to develop
skills and keep the adults engaged. The variable can be raised to increase
the amount of population (Adult or Youth) joining a community group which can
lead to a positive lifestyle.
Alcohol and Drugs - This variable acts as an agent to disengage Adult
and Youth from the community.
The Policing Expenditure - The number of money spent after police. This
variable can be changed to affect the number of people getting apprehended.
1) 3000 People living in Bourke
2) External Influence - Community groups, Police and Substance abuse
3) 70% of the population are Adult and 30% are Youth
4) Crime- 600
5) Apprehended -
6) Community Group - 300
7) Positive life - 100
8) Jail - 480
Positive Lifestyle lead by the community- Setting
the Community Expenditure to a high 80, policing factor to a medium 50 and
Substance abuse to a low 30 we will see a surge of positive lifestyle.
High Rate of Engagement- An increase
in the Substance abuse variable to 10% shows crime and people in jail increase
but the ratio of people engaged in community groups is much higher.
CRIME RATE (HIGHEST) - If
Community Engagement Expenditure and Policing Expenditure are reduced to zero
the amount of crime increases significantly over time and the amount of people
in jail reduces to near zero.
combination of policing and community engagement expenditure is the best
solution for the people of Bourke.The
policing will gradually reduce the amount of crime and the community
development programs will help create a positive lifestyle.
most effective outcome, an increase in policing is needed as well as
investments in community engagement activities.