People, generally, do not seem to be conscious of, or care about, the enormous dangers of climate change and even the possibility of a devastating war in the Korean peninsula that could turn nuclear. They carry on with their routine and banal conversations as if that was all that mattered. In the 60s there were peace demonstration, there was more awareness and public engagement in the face of the thread of nuclear war. Could the pressures and demands of modern capitalism, now no longer tamed by a competing communist system that could potentially appear to be more attractive, be a causal factor? People caught up in the turmoil of a positive feedback loop rarely perceive reality beyond it. This simple CLD tries to illustrate the dynamic and feedback loops that could be responsible for this strange apathy and how our present day economic system could be blinding us to imminent danger.

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

A model of the potential impact on the elderly population (75+ years) from heat stress, which is increased by climate change in the UK.

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

A model of the potential impact on the elderly population (75+ years) from heat stress, which is increased by climate change in the UK.

The purpose of this deer management model is to explore the capacity of wildlife management actions to help us adapt to the effects of climate change.

Koala Population in South East QLD
Assessment 1D

This model shows the different aspects in South East QLD that affect both the growth and decline of the koala population in the region and then attempts to simulate the declining trend of the koala population with reference to these different factors. Please note: the values associated with the koala population are in no way 'real' but are a means to get my point across of the ever decreasing population.

The once thriving population of koalas on Queenslands Koala Coast has dwindled since 1996 from approximately 6000 koalas to just under 2000 koalas in 2010 according to the Queensland Government's Department of Environment and Resource Management. However these figures may be even lower than stated in the report and the Australia Koala Foundation believes that these figures have been skewed so as to not have the koala be listed as vulnerable under the federal government's Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Act.

References:
Department of Environment and Resource Management (2012). Koala Coast Report 2010. Accessed from:
http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/wildlife/koalas/research/pdf/koala-coast-report2010.pdf


Moore, Tony (2012). Conservation Group Claims Koala Numbers Fudged. Accessed from:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/state-election-2012/conservation-group-claims-koala-numbers-fudged-20120314-1v3am.html#ixzz2PIlI8xoe

People, generally, do not seem to be conscious of, or care about, the enormous dangers of climate change and even the possibility of a devastating war in the Korean peninsula that could turn nuclear. They carry on with their routine and banal conversations as if that was all that mattered. In the 60s there were peace demonstration, there was more awareness and public engagement in the face of the thread of nuclear war. Could the pressures and demands of modern capitalism, now no longer tamed by a competing communist system that could potentially appear to be more attractive, be a causal factor? People caught up in the turmoil of a positive feedback loop rarely perceive reality beyond it. This simple CLD tries to illustrate the dynamic and feedback loops that could be responsible for this strange apathy and how our present day economic system could be blinding us to imminent danger.

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

Capitalism is in crisis and climate change disruption is now beginning to hit the bottom line. Insurance companies know this well. According to a report by the Bank of England, insured losses have risen from $10 000 million in 1985 to $50 000 million in 2015. Climate change cannot be reversed, and extreme weather events  will undoubtedly get worse in the future strengthening the disruptive effects shown in the CLD.  Another dynamic is that companies will continue to automate and, as The Economic Policy Institute has shown, fail to reflect  productivity gains in workers' salaries. The result, stagnating salaries is disastrous for demand, given that capitalism needs endlessly rising demand and consumption. A further serious problem is that as climate change gets worse there will be increasing demands for companies to assume their responsibility and bear the costs of negative externalities.  The CLD shows these factors which are likely to lead to the collapse of the system: when capitalism can no longer generate 'capital' it has stopped to serves any useful purpose. 

The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances,  and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/