A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances, and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/
Clone of 3 machines 2026 for materials v15
Market-led Sustainability is a 'Fix-that-Fails' as is illustraited in this graph in a very simplified manner. Likely market-led initiatives would be investment in renewables, electric cars and the development of long-term battery storage as a back-up to renewable energy adn other initiatives. However, all of these make demands on the environmemt, requiring resources, fossil fuels (solar cannot beused to built solar) and will be accompanied by greenhouse gas emission. In the medium and long term they will undermine the market-driven goal, increasing environmental and economic costs. The whole enterprise will eventually fail.
Clone of Market-Led Sustainability
Changes to V19: calculation of energy investments set on base and additional materials, not materials as a fraction of a total
energy-material transition model v20
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
Changes to V19: calculation of energy investments set on base and additional materials, not materials as a fraction of a total
Clone of energy-material transition model v20
Changes to energy material transition model v20:
- with exponential demand: maximum constraint introduced
- societal Al intensity has to adjust to a min value (not linearly decreasing)
- Without material feedbacks: capacity expansion needs to at least compensate for capacity retirements
Clone of Energy-material model 4 tipping v01
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
Fig 3.1 from Jorgen Randers book 2052 a Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years
Clone of Global 2052 Forecast
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Global Climate Change
NR 325 Final Schematic. Shows the impacts of mammalian predation and climate change (generally representative of sea level rise and storm/flooding events) on Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) populations.
Climate Change & Predation Plover Model
Changes to V19: calculation of energy investments set on base and additional materials, not materials as a fraction of a total
Clone of energy-material transition model v20
The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances, and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/
Clone of 3 machines 2024 lecture
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances, and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/
Clone of 3 machines 2026 for materials v16
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances, and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/
Clone of 3 machines release1
Changes to V17: capacity retirement updated, fraction of Al in energy intensities endognously calculated; fC repair is now also limited by Al supply gap
Clone of 3 machines 2026 for materials v19 sensitivity
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
