The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W
Economics Yield Regeneration Pollution Lifetime Rural Industrial Urban Labor Jobs Land Resources Services Health Fertility Politics Sea Fish Plants Ocean Strategy Engineering Technology Science Mortality Death Failure Climate Weather Population Population Growth Demographics Environment Animals

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Oliver Carefull
Simulation of MTBF with controls F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt  Where   • F(t) is the probability of failure   • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)  • t is the observed service life (h, for example) The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Strategy Environment Economics Finance Mathematics Physics Biology Health Fractals Chaos TURBULENCE Engineering Navier Stokes Science Demographics Population Growth BIFURCATIONS MTBF Risk Failure
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
Clone of Clone of BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK
Alena Peskova
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Demographics Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Updated World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Kyle Wendling
5
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Environment Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Erika Luk
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Population Growth Environment Demographics

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Svea
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amoun
Demographics Environment Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a more environmentally focused policy.

"The World3 model is a system dynamics model for computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems of the earth.

It was originally produced and used by a Club of Rome study that produced the model and the book The Limits to Growth (1972).

 The creators of the model were Dennis Meadows, project manager, and a team of 16 researchers

The main systems are: the food system, dealing with agriculture and food production, the industrial system, the population system,  the non-renewable resources system,  the pollution system. 

Scenario is below

Scenario2: Initial Natural Resource 1T -> 2T

Scenario3: Scenario2 + Persistent Pollution Tech Change Multiplier (-1,0)->(-1, -0.04)

Scenario4: Scenario3 + Yield Tech Change Multiplier (-1,0) -> (-1,0.04)

Scenario5: Scenario4 + Land life time 2100 -> 2002

Scenario6: Scenario5 + Resource Technology Change Multiplier (-1, 0) -> (-1, -0.04)

Scenario7: Scenario2 + Year of continued fertility change 2100 -> 2002, Time to zero population growth 2100 -> 2002

Scenario8: Scenario7 + Desired annual industrial per capita output 400 -> 350, Year of Industrial Equilibrium 2100 -> 2002

Scenario9: Scenario8 + scenario6

Scenario10: Scenario9 + Policy adoption year 2002 -> 1982 

Editor Original Snenario: Scenario4 + Land life time 2100 -> 2030 + Resource Technology Change Multiplier (-1, 0) -> (-1, -0.04) + Year of continued fertility change 2100 -> 2030, Time to zero population growth 2100 -> 2030 + Desired annual industrial per capita output 400 -> 350, Year of Industrial Equilibrium 2100 -> 2030 + Policy adoption year 2002 -> 2030.

This description is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3 

Model adapted from the implementation presented in Cellier, F.E. (2008), https://people.inf.ethz.ch/fcellier/Pubs/World/modelica_08_world3.pdf"

World3 in Modelica: Creating System Dynamics Models in the Modelica Framework, Proc. 6th International Modelica Conference, Bielefeld, Germany, Vol.2, pp. 393-400. 

The World3-03 Model with Scenario Description
滑川英樹
3
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W
Population Growth Pollution Regeneration Yield Ocean Sea Rural Fish Industrial Plants Animals Urban Labor Jobs Land Resources Services Health Fertility Politics Economics Strategy Engineering Technology Science Mortality Death Failure Climate Weather Population Lifetime Demographics Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Petr Kouba
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Population Growth Demographics Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Clone of Clone of Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Roger Brown
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Population Growth Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Matraysa
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Population Growth Demographics Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Svea
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Population Growth Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Janos Abonyi
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amo
Population Growth Demographics Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.


Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
jadesong
This is a simulator of carbon emissions.
Population Demographics
This is a simulator of carbon emissions.
Urbanization and Environmental Impact
Keri Surita
This is a simulator of carbon emissions.
Population Demographics
This is a simulator of carbon emissions.
Urbanization and carbon
Keri Surita
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Demographics Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Graeme Bushell
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Environment Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Christine
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W
Economics Technology Weather Engineering Population Industrial Urban Labor Jobs Land Population Growth Resources Services Health Demographics Animals Plants Fish Sea Ocean Strategy Politics Science Mortality Death Climate Environment Yield Regeneration Pollution Failure Lifetime Rural Fertility

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Bechara Assouad
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Demographics Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Antoine Chupin
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Population Growth Demographics Environment

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Clone of Clone of Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Roger Brown
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Population Growth Demographics

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of (4, Assignment) Copy of "The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster"
Svea
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amo
Environment Demographics Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.


Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
H Haraldsson
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Demographics Environment Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Clone of Clone of Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Ewa Christiane Gackenholz
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST W
Jobs Resources Strategy Engineering Technology Sea Economics Ocean Science Mortality Animals Demographics Rural Industrial Urban Services Labor Land Death Fish Population Growth Population Weather Politics Failure Climate Yield Regeneration Fertility Health Pollution Environment Plants Lifetime

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2014 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
Bertrand Nzomigni
The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors. Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amou
Environment Demographics Population Growth

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of The World3 Model: A Detailed World Forecaster
Tatiana Costache