Simplified SIR Model

Michael Marmot's Eur J Epidemiol Essay 2017 See also IM-62760  Social determinants of health from Michael Marmot's  ABC 2016 Boyer Lectures on Social Justice and the Health Gap

A simple SI (Susceptible-Infectious) model that captures the dynamics of COVID-19.

A simple SI (Susceptible-Infectious) model that captures the dynamics of COVID-19.

Extensio del SEIRD (bonus): (1) confinament S->C si I>Ic (rc*S) i contagi residual C->E = rho*beta*C*I/N; (2) reinfeccio R->S = omega*R, omega=1/immunityPeriod; (3) transmissivitat variable beta(t)=beta0*RTF(t) segons variant (Wuhan 1x, Alpha 1.5x, Delta 2x, Omicron 4x) i IFR per variant. Euler dt=0.25, 730 dies.

A simple SI (Susceptible-Infectious) model that captures the dynamics of COVID-19.

A simple SI (Susceptible-Infectious) model that captures the dynamics of COVID-19.

Model epidemiologic SEIRD amb estocs i fluxos. contactsday=7.42, infectivity=0.42, incubationPeriod=6.38 d, infectiousPeriod=14.39 d, fatalityRate=0.85%, N=1000, I0=10. Euler dt=0.25 dies. Pic I=513.66 (dia 15.75), pic E=572.96 (dia 8.75), morts finals D=8.50.