A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
  Format: Given  pre-conditions  when  independent variables(s)  then  dependent variable         Given  Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12))  when  one of these independent variables change  then  how   sensitive   is
Format: Given pre-conditions when independent variables(s) then dependent variable

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables change then how sensitive is Investment (22) over a 30 year time period (-1,000)

H1: if you Earn more then Investment will last much longer => rejected

H2: if you Spend less then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H3: if your Initial Investment is higher then Investment will last much longer => accepted

H4: if you reduce your Spend when Investments are declining then Investment will last much longer => accepted

Given Earnings Decline (0.25), Spending Variance (55), Initial Investment (500) and Rate of Return (RandNormal(0.06, 0.12)) when one of these independent variables are optimised then Investment will last exactly 30 years by minimising the absolute investment gap

H1: if you set an appropriate Spending Base then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

H2: if you set an appropriate Spending Reduction then remaining Investment is 0 => rejected

Source for investment returns: https://seekingalpha.com/article/3896226-90-year-history-of-capital-market-returns-and-risks
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

Models the repayment of a mortgage, with a fixed-term fixed-rate deal.    e.g. for an up-front £1495 fee, you get a fixed interest rate of 1.22% for 2 years, followed by variable rate).     After the deal ends, the 'variable' rate is currently constant, but could be set via a converter instead to mo
Models the repayment of a mortgage, with a fixed-term fixed-rate deal.

e.g. for an up-front £1495 fee, you get a fixed interest rate of 1.22% for 2 years, followed by variable rate).

After the deal ends, the 'variable' rate is currently constant, but could be set via a converter instead to model different predictions of future interest rates. 
 FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION     BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!    (governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  The chaotic turbulence is the result of th
FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION 
 BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
A simple budget planning system.  What additional complexities can you add?
Simulation of MTBF with controls   F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt   Where    • F(t) is the probability of failure    • λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)   • t is the observed service life (h, for example)  The inverse curve is the trust time On the right the increase in failures brings its
Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt 
Where  
• F(t) is the probability of failure  
• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example) 
• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime, 
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life
If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life
The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.  

Wearout
The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period. 
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION  The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed  Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a compon
THE BROKEN LINK BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND CREATES TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

Growth in supply and productivity is a summation of variables as is demand ... when the link between them is broken by catastrophic failure in a component the creation of unpredictable chaotic turbulence puts the controls ito a situation that will never return the system to its initial conditions as it is STIC system (Lorenz)

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite working containers (villages communities)

 Modelo de Dinámica de sistemas - KIVs, KOVs, CTQs, CFS, y KPIs para City Cores o Centros comerciales Spectrum   KIVs (Key Input Variables) - Variables Clave de Entrada  Estas variables son factores que impactan directamente el desempeño del sistema y son influenciables por decisiones estratégicas.
Modelo de Dinámica de sistemas - KIVs, KOVs, CTQs, CFS, y KPIs para City Cores o Centros comerciales Spectrum
KIVs (Key Input Variables) - Variables Clave de Entrada

Estas variables son factores que impactan directamente el desempeño del sistema y son influenciables por decisiones estratégicas.

  1. Allocated Marketing Budget: Presupuesto asignado a las campañas de marketing.
  2. Campaign Effectiveness: Porcentaje de efectividad de las campañas para convertir prospectos en clientes inscritos.
  3. Dollar per Channel: Gasto por cada canal de marketing (redes sociales, email marketing, eventos, etc.).
  4. Ops Cost per Channel: Costos operativos asociados con la gestión de cada canal.
  5. Number of Channels (# channels): Diversidad de canales de comunicación utilizados.
KOVs (Key Output Variables) - Variables Clave de Salida

Estas variables representan los resultados clave generados por el sistema.

  1. Lift in Active Customers: Incremento en la base de clientes activos.
  2. Lift in AOV: Incremento en el ticket promedio de compra.
  3. Incremental Revenue: Ingreso incremental generado por la estrategia de marketing.
  4. Operational Cost: Costo total operativo asociado a la implementación de las campañas.
CTQs (Critical to Quality)

Estas son métricas críticas que definen la calidad percibida por los clientes en el proceso.

  1. Experiencia del Cliente: Rapidez, comodidad y valor percibido en las campañas y promociones.
  2. Fidelización: Capacidad para retener clientes actuales y reducir el número de clientes inactivos.
  3. Accesibilidad del Marketing: Facilidad para que los clientes interactúen con las campañas en canales diversos.
CFS (Critical Success Factors)

Estos son factores críticos que aseguran el éxito del sistema.

  1. Ejecución Multicanal: Capacidad para manejar múltiples canales con alta eficiencia y efectividad.
  2. Segmentación Precisa: Definición de audiencias objetivo para maximizar la conversión de prospectos.
  3. Monitoreo de Costos Operativos: Gestión eficiente de los costos por canal para asegurar rentabilidad.
  4. Innovación en Promociones: Creatividad y diferenciación en campañas que añadan valor al cliente.
KPIs (Key Performance Indicators)

Indicadores que monitorean el desempeño de los procesos.

  1. Tasa de Conversión: Porcentaje de prospectos que se convierten en clientes inscritos o activos.
  2. Costo de Adquisición por Cliente (CAC): Costo promedio para convertir un prospecto en cliente activo.
  3. Retention Rate: Porcentaje de clientes activos retenidos en un periodo dado.
  4. Incremental Revenue: Total de ingresos adicionales generados por la estrategia.
  5. Engagement Rate: Porcentaje de clientes inscritos que se vuelven activos.
Modelo de Dinámica de SistemasRelación entre los Componentes:
  1. KIVs → Stocks → KOVs

    • Allocated Marketing Budget influye en el flujo de prospectos hacia inscritos (Customer Prospects → Enrolled Customers).
    • Campaign Effectiveness determina qué porcentaje de prospectos se convierten en inscritos y activos.
    • Dollar per Channel y Ops Cost per Channel afectan el costo operativo general y la efectividad de cada canal, impactando el flujo de clientes activos e inactivos.
  2. CTQs → Impactan Stocks

    • Fidelización mejora la retención de clientes en el stock de Active Customers, reduciendo el flujo hacia Inactive Customers.
    • Experiencia del Cliente mejora la conversión de prospectos hacia inscritos y activos.
  3. CFS → Sostienen el Sistema

    • Ejecución Multicanal asegura que la tasa de conversión (Conversion Rate) se mantenga alta.
    • Segmentación Precisa optimiza los recursos invertidos, maximizando Lift in Active Customers y Incremental Revenue.