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Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

This is an assignment for BMA708 - Marketing Insights into Big Data for the University of Tasmania. It investigates the links, impacts and relationships between Mountain Biking and Forestry in the Derby Mountain Bike Park in Tasmania's North East.

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To use this model, you can click through the story in the bottom left hand corner and/or adjust the values on the right hand side sliders and click the "Run Simulation" button within the model.

BMA708 - Marketing Insights into Big Data - Assignment 3 - Chris Rawson

Chris Rawson

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Assignment of Simulation of Mountain biking versus logging MD Raihanul Islam

MD Raihanul Islam

Overview

It is a model simulating logging and adventure tourism (mountain bike riding) competition in Derby, Tasmania. It is a chance for northeast Tasmania to become an exciting, new, world-class product for the mountain bike tourism industry, which drives local economic development.

Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works

l Trees grow; we cut them down because of demand for Timber and sell the logs.

l The mountain bike visits depend on previous experience and suggestions.

l Previous experience and suggestions depend on the number of trees compared to visitors and adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of mountain bike trail users.

l The employment opportunity depends on the mountain bike demand and demand for Timber.

Interesting Insights

Mountain biking appears to be unaffected by heavy logging. The visitor experience and numbers are improved by reducing park capacity. The main issue is that any success with the mountain bike park increases visitor numbers. A high timber price is also required to balance the park's popularity. Mountain biking appears to require only a narrow corridor; that is, single-track mountain bike trails are enough. The employment is a measure of the economic acting, a recession or growth trends.

BMA708 Marketing Insights into Big Data_Complex Systems_Mountain bike riding versus logging in Derby, Tasmania

Peili Zhang

Clone of Assignment 2_Shahrukh Kamran_HNEE

Kelly

Overview
This model is a working simulation of the competition between the mountain biking tourism industry versus the forestry logging within Derby Tasmania.

How the model works

The left side of the model highlights the mountain bike flow beginning with demand for the forest that leads to increased visitors using the forest of mountain biking. Accompanying variables effect the tourism income that flows from use of the bike trails.
On the right side, the forest flow begins with tree growth then a demand for timber leading to the logging production. The sales from the logging then lead to the forestry income.
The model works by identifying how the different variables interact with both mountain biking and logging. As illustrated there are variables that have a shared effect such as scenery and adventure and entertainment.

Variables
The variables are essential in understanding what drives the flow within the model. For example mountain biking demand is dependent on positive word mouth which in turn is dependent on scenery. This is an important factor as logging has a negative impact on how the scenery changes as logging deteriorates the landscape and therefore effects positive word of mouth.
By establishing variables and their relationships with each other, the model highlights exactly how mountain biking and forestry logging effect each other and the income it supports.

Interesting Insights
The model suggests that though there is some impact from logging, tourism still prospers in spite of negative impacts to the scenery with tourism increasing substantially over forestry income. There is also a point at which the visitor population increases exponentially at which most other variables including adventure and entertainment also increase in result. The model suggests that it may be possible for logging and mountain biking to happen simultaneously without negatively impacting on the tourism income.

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

BS

3

Overview

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

BS

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging. Version 2

Japan is facing a decline in forestry engaged population. By using this model you can speculate the optimum allocation of the workforce.

Optimum of Forestry Administration Depending on Workforce

Shin Okabe

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

Chris Rawson

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

BS

Assignment 2_Shahrukh Kamran_HNEE

Shahrukh Kamran

Overview

This model which simulates the competition of Logging with Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. This main reason of this simulation is to find if logging will affect the mountain tourism and by any chance they can co-exist.

Both Timber harvesting and mountain tourism can bring the economic contribution to Tasmania. In the Logging industry, it helps increase the need of employment and at the same time logging generate the profit through selling those timbers. In the Mountain Tourism industry, it can get the revenue through couple of ways which include accommodation (approximately 3 days find in paper), Restaurant and parking fee. However, the low growth rate of the trees is not keeping up with the rate of logging, if the trees getting less in Derby mountain, it will affect the sights and the riding experience for tourists, which will affect the satisfaction and expectation as it depends on the sights and experience. The satisfaction and expectation will influence the number of visitors, if they satisfied, they can come again or tell others about the great experience, if not, more and more people will not come again.

It seems like logging has no significant negative effect to the mountain tourism, compare the forestry income with the tourism income, tourism income gradually higher than the forestry income at last, which means tourism is in a very important position, as long as the visitors are stable, tourism industry can provide greater economic contribution, stakeholders and governments can find the balance by maintain the status or better slightly reduce logging in order to make them co-exist.

Overview
This model is a working simulation of the competition between the mountain biking tourism industry versus the forestry logging within Derby Tasmania.

yao.xu

How the model works

The left side of the model highlights the mountain bike flow beginning with demand for the forest that leads to increased visitors using the forest of mountain biking. Accompanying variables effect the tourism income that flows from use of the bike trails.
On the right side, the forest flow begins with tree growth then a demand for timber leading to the logging production. The sales from the logging then lead to the forestry income.
The model works by identifying how the different variables interact with both mountain biking and logging. As illustrated there are variables that have a shared effect such as scenery and adventure and entertainment.

Variables
The variables are essential in understanding what drives the flow within the model. For example mountain biking demand is dependent on positive word mouth which in turn is dependent on scenery. This is an important factor as logging has a negative impact on how the scenery changes as logging deteriorates the landscape and therefore effects positive word of mouth.
By establishing variables and their relationships with each other, the model highlights exactly how mountain biking and forestry logging effect each other and the income it supports.

Interesting Insights
The model suggests that though there is some impact from logging, tourism still prospers in spite of negative impacts to the scenery with tourism increasing substantially over forestry income. There is also a point at which the visitor population increases exponentially at which most other variables including adventure and entertainment also increase in result. The model suggests that it may be possible for logging and mountain biking to happen simultaneously without negatively impacting on the tourism income.

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

The model explores the interactions between mountain biking industry and logging industry in Derby, Tasmania. Although both industries promote the economy, they generate income at a different rate and at each other's expense. Given such competing relationship, this model focuses on demonstrating to what extent can these two industries co-exist through runing simulation. Further, the model explores the conditions under which one may adversely impact the other.

Overview

How does the model work?

We build two models for forestry and mountain biking respectively. Each model demonstrates how the industry imposes influences and benefits the economy as a whole.

With mountain bike visits, forestry enhances the scenary and increases excitement and adventure, that will lead to better tourist experiences and recommendation. As such, more visitors come to the park, that boosts the economy through higher tourism income.
From the perspective of logging, logging creates employment opportunities and generates income from timber. On the other hand, it also degrades the scenary and the experience of mountain bikers looking for adventure. The immediate effect is the decreasing amount of visitors. However, fewer visitors improve experience and may pull up amount of park visits.

Interesting Insights

As shown from the simulation results, logging does not deter the development of mountain biking in Derby. Over the long term, adventure tourism is expected to continuously generate increasing income. This is attributable to the direct income from park charges, as well as accompanying spending in restaurants and accommodation. As a result, the total economic benefits for the local area is positive and tends to increase over time.
In addition, past experience fluctuates as the amount of visitors changes. These two variables interact and impose impacts on each other. More visitors will degrade the experience and decrease park visits, which will in turn improve the experience and increase park visits.
Moreover, demand for timber actually promotes adventure tourism through creating more job opportunities, which would increase park visits.

Simulation of Derby Mountain Biking versus Logging

Moqiao Wang

Overview:

This simulation will show the relationship between tree logging forestry and how this can affect mountain biking tourism in Derby Park Tasmania. The main goal of this simulation is to show these two industries can co-exist in the same environment, or increase in demand or production in one sector will affect the result of another.

Function of the model:

In comparison there are both pros and cons for both sectors working correspondently. Demand for derby park is caused by individual past experience when visiting the park or friends recommendation which increase in the number of demands. Increase in demands will increase in the number of visitors. When visitors visits the park they require make a purchase a bike and pay the park for using the park facilities. All this will adds up to bikers total spending when visiting Derby. When consumer spend it is booting the economy especially in the tourism sector. Similarly tree logging will also contribute financially towards the Tasmania economy. The regeneration stage is relatively low compare to the logging rate. The growth will not cover the loss which can cause some level of damage in the scenery of the park, affecting tourist to view when mountain biking. Visitors overall experience will have the impact towards the demand for mountain biking in derby park, if visitors experience is satisfied they will come back to visit again or visit with group of friends, even words of mouth recommendation will also increase the level of demand of visiting Derby.

Some key insights base on the simulation:

Based on the simulation of the two models we can see there are some key changes.

Tree logging increase will cause the disturbance of the natural scenery, thus change the overall experience of the visitors, decrease in the level of demand. Tree logging will also have negative impact towards the overall tourist experience thus affect the park facility and track. The natural scenery and the overall experience can affect their experience and if they would continue to recommend this area to friends to increase the demand.

Assignment 3 Derby mountain biking and the effect of logging - 586984

Kelly

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

RAJNEESH MAHAJAN

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Overview

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

Silong Lou

Overview

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.

With mountain bkie visits. This depends on past experience and recommendations. Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users. Park capacity limits the number of users.

It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking. By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved. A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers. Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking

Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging

James Ondari

The model simulates the comparison between mountain biking industry and forestry/logging in Derby Tasmania.

How the model works

On the left-hand side, Derby Mountain biking, tourists visit the mountain according to reviews and recommendation of mountain scenery and entertainment activities. The number of people who hire bikes and who choose to dine on the mountain are limited by bike availability. Both bike hiring and biker dining contribute to tourist revenue in Derby. On the right-hand side, forest trees grow at certain rates, but are negatively affected by timber demand. Timber logging generate revenue, which depends on sale price and associated cost.

Interesting insights

Although forestry contributes more revenue in a certain time, it seems that Derby Mountain bike generate more tourist revenue from dining services and bike hiring in a long term.